We’re Likely To Set A Turnout Record In 2020
We know that around 100 million Americans have already voted by mail or early in-person, which will surely amount to the largest amount of early voting in U.S. history. But on its own, that doesn’t intrinsically mean there’ll be record-setting turnout, as early votes could simply “cannibalize” Election Day votes that would have been cast anyway. Yet in combination with polling that shows very high levels of engagement, it does seem quite possible that this election will set a modern turnout record for a presidential election.
Since the voting age was lowered to 18 in 1971, the highest presidential turnout among the voting-eligible population was roughly 62 percent in 2008, according to data from the United States Election Project. But the 2016 election wasn’t far off that mark, as some 137 million total voters cast ballots for president, which amounted to 60 percent turnout among the voting-eligible population.
However, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast has an average estimated turnout of about 158 million in the presidential contest, which would work out to 66 percent turnout among the voting-eligible population and far surpass even 2008’s showing. As the low end of our turnout estimate works out to 147 million votes — 62 percent turnout — it seems pretty likely that turnout will be up at least over 2016, if not over 2008, too.
And this may not be surprising given how much voters think this election matters and how energized they are. Back in early August, the Pew Research Center found that 83 percent of registered voters felt it “really matters who wins” in November, the highest percentage dating back to 2000. And in September, Gallup found that 71 percent of registered voters said they were “more enthusiastic” about voting than in the past, the highest figure Gallup had found dating back to 1996. Together, these sentiments seem likely to produce record-breaking turnout in 2020.