Biden Is Projected To Be The President-Elect. Here’s How It All Went Down.

Looks like Trump won the new batch of ballots from Maricopa County by 15.6 points — 56.4 percent to 40.8 percent — which is not bad but slightly less than the pace he needed. This makes his path back harder in Arizona, though I wouldn’t say insurmountable.

Another small update from Arizona, this one from Yuma County, where a batch favorable to Biden (52 percent to 47 percent) narrowed Trump’s gap slightly in the county, though he still leads by about 4,000 votes. Biden’s statewide lead is about 28,000. Trump won the county by 560 votes in 2016.

This item — flagged by Nate Cohn of The New York Times — is important. The Allegheny County executive says provisional ballots in the county are trending 3-to-1 toward Biden. We cited evidence on Friday that provisional ballots are red in red counties, but we hadn’t had any provisional ballot results from blue or purple counties yet so we couldn’t be sure what they would look like in those areas. But if provisional ballots are blue in blue counties, as this data point suggests, Trump is unlikely to make many gains with them statewide. In fact, he’ll likely lose further ground, since there are more provisionals in blue counties than in red ones.