FiveThirtyEight
Aaron Bycoffe

While we wait for a larger update from Arizona’s Maricopa County, we just got a new batch of results from Pinal County, where Trump leads Biden by nearly 15 percentage points, 57 percent to 41 percent. In this batch, though, Trump outpaced his share in the county, getting 62 percent to Biden’s 35 percent and netting a little less than 2,000 votes.

Biden now leads statewide in Arizona by just under 28,000 votes.

Micah Cohen

It looks like we’re going to get a big batch of votes from Maricopa County in Arizona within the next half hour or so, according to reporting by our colleague Ben Siegel at ABC News:

Geoffrey Skelley

ABC News just projected that Georgia’s U.S. Senate race between GOP Sen. David Perdue and Democrat Jon Ossoff will go to a runoff. We’ve been anticipating this as heavily Democratic areas of the state completed their vote counts. The bottom line is that there’ll now be two runoffs on Jan. 5 in Georgia, one for the Perdue-Ossoff race and one for the state’s other seat between Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler and Democrat Raphael Warnock.

As things stand, those runoffs appear likely to decide control of the Senate, as the GOP looks on track to have a 50-to-48-seat edge going into Jan. 5. If past runoffs in the state are any indication, Republicans may have an upper hand, as turnout and Democratic performance have usually declined in runoffs relative to the first round of voting. In both 1992 and 2008, Senate runoffs resulted in GOP wins, and a high-profile secretary of state race in 2018 also saw the same pattern. Moreover, as Trump looks more and more likely to lose to Biden, it’s easy to imagine Republicans being more motivated to turn out than Democrats, who may feel like they’ve done their duty.


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