Biden Is Projected To Be The President-Elect. Here’s How It All Went Down.

Why hasn’t Biden been projected as the winner of the 2020 presidential election by the Associated Press, the major networks — including our colleagues at ABC News — The New York Times, CNN, Fox News, etc. yet?

For better or worse, that’s the main question of the day. There’s less suspense about the actual outcome and more about when — and we do think it’s a matter of “when” and not “if” — projections will be made as data trickles in from Pennsylvania and other states.

It’s a story that’s both interesting and hard for FiveThirtyEight to cover. On the one hand, you’d think we’re well-suited to the story, as we have our own views of what the numbers look like and do plenty of media criticism and analysis.

On the other hand, we’re a part of ABC News. We have a little bit of an additional sense of some things. But much less than you’d think as, by design, decision desks are largely walled off from their news organizations. We do know that the people at these decision desks are incredibly smart, dedicated professionals. Some of the theories floating around, for example, that networks aren’t projecting a winner out of deference to Trump are … really stupid.

Still, it can be a little bit awkward when, essentially, you’re reporting out a story in which the company you work for is (along with the other networks) a major player. We’re doing the best we can under the circumstances.

Anyway, I want to be clear that the following point just comes from research I’ve done on my own, although I think it’s consistent with the behavior we’ve seen from the decision desks so far. It comes from this AP explainer on when they call races:

In several states, recounts are mandated if the margin between the top two candidates falls inside a set range established by law. AP will not call a race if the margin is within such a mandatory recount range — or if it could fall into that range as final votes are counted.

In some states, recounts may be requested if the margin falls inside of a set range. In others, candidates can request a recount regardless of the margin between the top two candidates. In these states, AP will not call a race if the margin between the top two candidates is 0.5 percentage points or less, or if the margin could fall inside that range once all ballots cast are counted.

AP may call the race if the trailing candidate confirms they will not seek a recount or if the candidate publicly concedes the election.

Emphasis mine. The AP will not call a race if the margin falls within the mandatory recount range or if it could fall into that range as votes are counted. That’s pertinent in Pennsylvania, for instance, where the recount threshold is 0.5 percent. Currently, Biden leads by 0.43 percentage points in Pennsylvania as additional mail ballots are counted. That’s going to keep growing — probably to around 1 percent — as additional ballots are counted.

So could the race get called when Biden’s lead hits 0.5 percent? Actually, I think that’s decently likely, at least for some of the decision desks (keep in mind that not everyone necessarily uses the AP’s exact standards). But there is also that second provision: “or if it could fall into that range as votes are counted.” So in theory, the AP would have to be satisfied that not only will Biden maintain his lead but also that he’ll maintain a lead of 0.5 percentage points once provisional ballots are counted.

That is a higher standard. I’d consider it essentially certain that Biden will win Pennsylvania, barring unexpected legal challenges. Is it also essentially certain that he’ll win by 0.5 percentage points or more? I think you could argue the point based on those provisional ballots, but I’d probably come down on the side of “yes” on that question too, at least to the standards that decision desks usually use. Nonetheless, 0.5 percent is a higher threshold than one vote. And if we’re still waiting for calls throughout the day, that may be the reason why depending on what each network’s policy is and how they’re interpreting it.

Here’s an idea of when we might get the next update from Allegheny County, the Pennsylvania county with the most mail-in ballots remaining.

Good morning! And welcome to Election Day 5!

What changed overnight? Not much, actually. Biden’s lead in Georgia widened a bit as a handful of provisional ballots were counted — Biden’s margin over Trump now stands at more than 7,200 votes. Very few votes remain to be counted in Georgia, and it’s very likely to remain in recount territory.

In any case, what we’re really still watching is Pennsylvania. We might get some more from from there this morning. We’re not exactly sure when, TBH — maybe any moment, maybe not for a couple of hours. We’ll keep you posted.

Otherwise, we expect to get more results from Arizona and Nevada later this morning/midday. Biden leads in both states but there’s still outstanding votes to be counted.

So … yeah … you’ll know the latest just as soon as we do. Stand by. And thanks for sticking with us!