FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

Here’s an idea of when we might get the next update from Allegheny County, the Pennsylvania county with the most mail-in ballots remaining.

Micah Cohen

Rise And Shine ... It's Election Day 5!

Good morning! And welcome to Election Day 5!

What changed overnight? Not much, actually. Biden’s lead in Georgia widened a bit as a handful of provisional ballots were counted — Biden’s margin over Trump now stands at more than 7,200 votes. Very few votes remain to be counted in Georgia, and it’s very likely to remain in recount territory.

In any case, what we’re really still watching is Pennsylvania. We might get some more from from there this morning. We’re not exactly sure when, TBH — maybe any moment, maybe not for a couple of hours. We’ll keep you posted.

Otherwise, we expect to get more results from Arizona and Nevada later this morning/midday. Biden leads in both states but there’s still outstanding votes to be counted.

So … yeah … you’ll know the latest just as soon as we do. Stand by. And thanks for sticking with us!

Nathaniel Rakich

We’re Calling It A Night

We don’t expect any major updates overnight, so we’re going to adjourn for the evening and pick things back up tomorrow morning. Here’s where we stand: Biden can clinch the presidency by winning either Pennsylvania or both Arizona and Nevada. And he looks good in all three states:

  • Pennsylvania: Biden’s lead here keeps widening and now sits at 28,833 votes. What’s more, the remaining 90,000 or so mail-in ballots and 100,000 or so provisional ballots figure to be Democratic-leaning as well. We expect to get more updates from large, blue counties like Philadelphia and Allegheny tomorrow, which may (or may not) inspire the networks to project the state for Biden.
  • Nevada: After today’s updates, Biden now leads here by 22,657 votes. Although about 124,500 ballots have yet to be counted, they are expected to lean Democratic. Clark County (home of Las Vegas), where most of the outstanding ballots are from, will release its next update at noon Eastern on Saturday and should have the bulk of the counting done this weekend.
  • Arizona: Biden currently leads here by 29,861 votes, but an estimated 173,000 ballots (including roughly 47,000 provisional ballots) remain to be counted. Trump needs to win about 59 percent of those (or more) to pull into the lead, but he’s been falling short of that so far. Most of the remaining ballots are in Maricopa County, which will announce its next batch of results Saturday at 11 a.m. Eastern.

Finally, there are two states that are not going to be resolved any time soon.


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