FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

In other news, the Associated Press has now projected that Georgia’s regular Senate election will go to a runoff between Republican David Perdue (who is at 49.8 percent) and Democrat Jon Ossoff (47.9 percent). That would set up two runoff Senate elections in the Peach State on Jan. 5 that would together determine which party controls the Senate.

Nathaniel Rakich

Yeah, Geoffrey. Hillary Clinton was the first Democratic presidential candidate since at least 1960 to do better in Maricopa County than she did in the rest of Arizona. It looks like Biden will be the second.
Hillary Clinton made huge strides in Maricopa County

How Maricopa County voted compared with the rest of Arizona in the last five presidential elections

Election Maricopa County Rest of Arizona Gap
2000 R+10 EVEN R+10
2004 R+15 R+4 R+10
2008 R+11 R+6 R+5
2012 R+11 R+7 R+4
2016 R+3 R+5 D+2

Source: Arizona Secretary of State

Nate Silver

Biden’s lead now up to 0.4 percentage points, or 27,000 votes, after a (as expected) very favorable batch of ballot drops for him in Allegheny County. There was some notion that the race might get called if Biden hit a 0.5 percentage point statewide margin, meaning he’d be above the recount threshold. Could we get there tonight? It wasn’t looking like it, but now, well … maybe?


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