Biden Is Projected To Be The President-Elect. Here’s How It All Went Down.

When is a lawsuit just a very expensive press release? Republicans have spent the past few days questioning the legality of the presidential election — even though, as I’ve mentioned several times on this live blog, the Trump campaign hasn’t yet produced actual evidence of wrongdoing, or proof that “illegal” ballots are being included in the count.

The latest notable legal maneuver came this afternoon, when Pennsylvania Republicans asked the Supreme Court to order Pennsylvania counties to segregate ballots that arrive after Election Day and refrain from counting them until the legal questions surrounding the deadline have been resolved.

Upon reading that, those of you who have followed the election litigation closely might have a bit of déjà vu. Pennsylvania’s secretary of state has already directed county election officials to set aside the late-arriving ballots (which are still valid under a Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruling) to be counted later. (This batch of ballots does not appear to be very large.) In their emergency application to the Supreme Court, Pennsylvania Republicans expressed concern that some counties might not be following the secretary of state’s orders because they hadn’t confirmed that they were adhering to the procedure, but didn’t offer any evidence that the guidance was actually being flouted.

This is just the latest in a stream of legal actions from the Trump campaign and Republicans that allege election misconduct without providing concrete proof that something illegal has happened. In a statement earlier today, Trump declared that “illegal ballots should not be counted.” But there’s no evidence that’s actually happening. The legal arguments that have been made in that direction either haven’t been convincing to judges, or — like this one — seem highly unlikely to affect the election in ways that could change the outcome. And so far, the litigation hasn’t stopped or even meaningfully slowed the vote count in key states — much less called the totals into question.

Since it looks like no projection is imminent in the presidential race, we’re going to take another quick break. To tide you over, here’s where things stand in the five crucial states we’re still watching:

Where we’re expecting more data tonight:

• Pennsylvania: Biden has overtaken Trump in the state and now leads by 13,371 votes — and most of the remaining 100,000+ ballots should be very good for Democrats, given that they are either mail-in or provisional votes. Of particular note, a cache of about 29,000 mail-in ballots in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) that a court had ordered to be segregated and double-checked will be counted starting at 5 p.m. Eastern.
• Nevada: After some updates this morning, Biden expanded his lead here to 20,137 votes. Although about 150,000 late-arriving mail ballots or provisional ballots have yet to be counted, these ballots are expected to lean Democratic. Clark County (home of Las Vegas), where most percent of the outstanding ballots are, will release its next update at 7 p.m. Eastern and should have the bulk of the counting done this weekend.
• Arizona: Biden currently leads here by 43,779 votes, but there are somewhere around 220,000 left to count. Trump needs to win about 60 percent of those (or more) to pull into the lead, but he’s been falling short of that so far. We expect to get more results from Maricopa County (where most of the outstanding ballots are) at 9 p.m. Eastern. It’s unclear whether that will be enough to cause the networks to project the state. (Some outlets, such as Fox News, have already projected Arizona for Biden, but most media outlets have not, including our colleagues at ABC News.)

Heading to a recount:

• Georgia: Biden currently leads here by a razor-thin margin (1,561 votes) with about 8,200 regular absentee ballots, up to 8,900 overseas ballots and at least 5,500 provisional ballots left to count (plus 2,000 rejected absentee ballots that could be “cured” by their voters). The secretary of state has already said that the race will go to a recount.

No updates until next week:

• North Carolina: North Carolina has counted every ballot it had in its possession as of Tuesday, and Trump leads by 76,737 votes among them. However, the state has announced that about 117,000 mail-in ballots and 40,766 provisional ballots are potentially outstanding, although not all of them will count. Mail-in ballots have until Nov. 12 to arrive, and only at that point will more results be released.

What’s Happening In Alaska And North Carolina

Neither the presidential race nor the U.S. Senate race has been called in Alaska or North Carolina. Those states are electorally important, particularly since it seemed before the election that Democrats might win control of the Senate in part by defeating North Carolina incumbent Republican Thom Tillis and had an outside shot of knocking Alaska incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan.

We may not have a resolution in either state for a while. Trump leads by about 1.4 percentage points in North Carolina, Tillis is ahead of Democrat Cal Cunningham by 1.8 points. About 5 percent of the vote in the state is uncounted, and absentee ballots postmarked on Election Day will be counted as long as they are received by Nov. 12. That said, all indications are that Republicans will remain ahead here. Biden campaign officials have indicated they believe Trump is likely to win the state. Tillis has declared victory, although Cunningham has not yet conceded. The Raleigh-based News & Observer has analyzed where the remaining votes are coming from and concluded, “the updated tally is unlikely to change the results of the state’s two biggest races.”

Alaska also will count absentee ballots received through late next week. And because so many absentee ballots have not yet been counted, only about 56 percent of the state’s total vote has been tabulated. Among the votes counted so far, Trump leads by roughly 30 percentage points, Sullivan is ahead by about 31 points over his opponent, Al Gross, who is officially an independent but has aligned with Democrats. That said, the absentee ballots are likely to be Democratic-leaning, so Alaska’s winners may not be officially declared for a while.

Biden doesn’t need either of these states to put him over 270 electoral votes. The Democrats can effectively win the Senate by winning both seats in Georgia (though, as there would be a 50–50 tie, this would require the vice president to cast tie-breaking votes), but it would, of course, be easier for them if they won seats in Alaska and/or North Carolina. It’s likely, however, that they will be shut out in both states at the Senate level.