Biden Is Projected To Be The President-Elect. Here’s How It All Went Down.

Yeah … I mean, we don’t call races here at FiveThirtyEight. But I can’t imagine how you can look at those Nevada numbers and not think Biden will win there.

We just got a big chunk (more than 30,000) of the almost 200,000 ballots that had been remaining to count in Nevada. And Biden won the batch, 66 percent to 31 percent. Given that it’s Trump who needs to make up ground in the state, that’s really bad for Republicans. Biden now leads statewide in Nevada by 1.8 percentage points, and if this batch was any indication, that lead may only grow from here.

Here’s the situation in Pennsylvania. We calculate that Trump needs at least 52 percent of the remaining vote to retake the lead — and that’s assuming every one of the 100,000 provisional ballots is counted (unlikely, since the reason that caused a voter to cast a provisional ballot in the first place may turn out to render that vote invalid). As Geoffrey mentioned earlier, the remaining ballots are expected to skew heavily Democratic. Trump is in real trouble in Pennsylvania.