FiveThirtyEight
Nate Silver

Jeff Van Drew, the former Democrat who switched parties to become a Republican, has won reelection in New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District, according to the Associated Press. (ABC News hasn’t made a projection there yet.) A lot of these marginal House seats going the GOP’s way.

Nathaniel Rakich

It will be weeks before we know the final popular vote, but one thing is certain: This will be the seventh time in the last eight presidential elections that Democrats have won the popular vote. George W. Bush in 2004 was the only Republican to do so during that span.

Dan Hopkins

Pennsylvania is certainly leaning toward Biden, but the Democrats won’t be able to count on its 20 Electoral College votes in 2024 — after all, we are likely to lose a congressional seat (and with it, an electoral vote) once redistricting is complete.


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