Control of the Senate remains uncertain, but it’s safe to say that the rosiest scenarios for Democrats are off the table — at this point, they would be lucky to win even a bare majority. ABC News has projected that Republicans will control at least 47 Senate seats in the next Congress and Democrats will control at least 46 (including the two independents who currently caucus with the party). Seven seats remain up for grabs, but Republicans have the upper hand in most of them.
Few competitive races have been projected yet, but each party has scored one pickup. In Colorado, Democrat John Hickenlooper defeated Republican Cory Gardner, 54 percent to 44 percent (with 88 percent of the expected vote reporting). And in Alabama, Republican Tommy Tuberville beat Democratic Sen. Doug Jones, 61 percent to 39 percent (with 94 percent of the expected vote in). In addition, Republicans also held off strong Democratic challenges in the states of Iowa, Montana, Kansas, South Carolina, Texas and Mississippi. Here are all the races that ABC News has projected thus far:
How the Senate’s balance of power shifted
Projected races and whether the winning party switched from 2016
State
Incumbent
Winner
Switched Party?
Alabama
Democratic
Republican
✓
Arkansas
Republican
Republican
Colorado
Republican
Democratic
✓
Delaware
Democratic
Democratic
Idaho
Republican
Republican
Illinois
Democratic
Democratic
Iowa
Republican
Republican
Kansas
Republican
Republican
Kentucky
Republican
Republican
Louisiana
Republican
Republican
Massachusetts
Democratic
Democratic
Minnesota
Democratic
Democratic
Mississippi
Republican
Republican
Montana
Republican
Republican
Nebraska
Republican
Republican
New Hampshire
Democratic
Democratic
New Jersey
Democratic
Democratic
New Mexico
Democratic
Democratic
Oklahoma
Republican
Republican
Oregon
Democratic
Democratic
Rhode Island
Democratic
Democratic
South Carolina
Republican
Republican
South Dakota
Republican
Republican
Tennessee
Republican
Republican
Texas
Republican
Republican
Virginia
Democratic
Democratic
West Virginia
Republican
Republican
Wyoming
Republican
Republican
However, we’re still awaiting results in several races. In Arizona, Democrat Mark Kelly leads Republican Sen. Martha McSally 55 percent to 45 percent, with 77 percent of the expected vote in. But in North Carolina, Republican Sen. Thom Tillis leads Democrat Cal Cunningham 49 percent to 47 percent, with 94 percent of the expected vote reporting. And in Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins leads Democrat Sara Gideon 50 percent to 43 percent (with 62 percent of the expected vote reporting). And in Georgia, Republican Sen. David Perdue leads Democrat Jon Ossoff 51 percent to 47 percent, with 90 percent of the expected vote reporting. If these results hold, Republicans would keep control of the Senate.
[big-table]
Senate races we’re still waiting on
Share of the expected vote reported, by race and the leading party’s current margin
Race▲▼
Expected vote reported▲▼
▲▼
Leading party▲▼
North Carolina
94.0%
-
-
R+1.8
Georgia
91.0
-
-
R+4
Georgia special
91.0
-
-
D+5.2
Arizona special
82.0
-
-
D+6.7
Michigan
71.0
-
-
R+8.8
Maine
66.0
-
-
R+6
Alaska
31.0
-
-
R+26.3
The races in Michigan and Alaska are too early in the vote count to really say much about right now. However, we do know for a fact that the special election in Georgia is going into overtime. Under Georgia law, a candidate must get a majority of the vote in order to win a general election, but that didn’t happen in this case because of the fact that it was a jungle primary (where all candidates, regardless of party, run on the same ballot) and the vote was split among 20 different candidates. Democrat Raphael Warnock came the closest with 32 percent, followed by Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler with 27 percent and Republican Rep. Doug Collins with 21 percent. As a result, Warnock and Loeffler will advance to a runoff election on Jan. 5 — two days after the 117th Congress is scheduled to be sworn in!
