Now that it’s 11 p.m. Eastern, the polls are now totally closed (and all mail-in ballots due) in California, Idaho, Oregon and Washington. We may get network projections for these states shortly, but in the meantime, here are our final forecasts in them.
Our final forecasts for the 11 p.m. races
The final numbers from FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for races where the last polls close at 11 p.m. Eastern
| President races | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| chance of winning | |||
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Forecasted avg. vote margin |
| California | 99.9% | 0.1% | D+30 |
| Idaho | 0.6 | 99.4 | R+22 |
| Oregon | 98.2 | 1.8 | D+19 |
| Washington | 99.2 | 0.8 | D+24 |
| Senate races | |||
| chance of winning | |||
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Forecasted avg. vote margin |
| Idaho | 0.6% | 99.4% | R+24 |
| Oregon | 99.5 | 0.5 | D+24 |
| House races | |||
| chance of winning | |||
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Forecasted avg. vote margin |
| CA-1 | 4.7% | 95.3% | R+13 |
| CA-2 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+55 |
| CA-3 | 98.5 | 1.5 | D+19 |
| CA-4 | 4.6 | 95.4 | R+13 |
| CA-5 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+57 |
| CA-6 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+55 |
| CA-7 | 99.1 | 0.9 | D+21 |
| CA-8 | 2.9 | 97.1 | R+16 |
| CA-9 | 99.2 | 0.8 | D+23 |
| CA-10 | 91.6 | 8.4 | D+13 |
| CA-11 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+47 |
| CA-12 | >99.9 | D+100 | |
| CA-13 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+85 |
| CA-14 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+63 |
| CA-15 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+51 |
| CA-16 | 99.8 | 0.2 | D+30 |
| CA-17 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+56 |
| CA-18 | >99.9 | D+100 | |
| CA-19 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+53 |
| CA-20 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+57 |
| CA-21 | 58.2 | 41.8 | D+2 |
| CA-22 | 2.6 | 97.4 | R+16 |
| CA-23 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+32 |
| CA-24 | 98.9 | 1.1 | D+21 |
| CA-25 | 54.7 | 45.3 | D+1 |
| CA-26 | 99.8 | 0.2 | D+29 |
| CA-27 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+47 |
| CA-28 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+57 |
| CA-29 | 99.8 | D+100 | |
| CA-30 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+52 |
| CA-31 | 99.7 | 0.3 | D+28 |
| CA-32 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+43 |
| CA-33 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+46 |
| CA-34 | 99.5 | D+100 | |
| CA-35 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+44 |
| CA-36 | 97.0 | 3.0 | D+17 |
| CA-37 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+77 |
| CA-38 | >99.9 | D+100 | |
| CA-39 | 74.0 | 26.0 | D+5 |
| CA-40 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+69 |
| CA-41 | 99.8 | 0.2 | D+31 |
| CA-42 | 7.0 | 93.0 | R+14 |
| CA-43 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+51 |
| CA-44 | >99.9 | D+100 | |
| CA-45 | 93.9 | 6.1 | D+14 |
| CA-46 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+43 |
| CA-47 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+34 |
| CA-48 | 68.0 | 32.0 | D+4 |
| CA-49 | 98.7 | 1.3 | D+17 |
| CA-50 | 5.4 | 94.6 | R+11 |
| CA-51 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+49 |
| CA-52 | 99.9 | 0.1 | D+31 |
| CA-53 | 82.6 | D+100 | |
| ID-1 | 0.1 | 99.9 | R+31 |
| ID-2 | 0.1 | 99.9 | R+29 |
| OR-1 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+34 |
| OR-2 | 1.0 | 99.0 | R+22 |
| OR-3 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+51 |
| OR-4 | 78.1 | 21.9 | D+7 |
| OR-5 | 96.1 | 3.9 | D+16 |
| WA-1 | 99.6 | 0.4 | D+26 |
| WA-2 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+40 |
| WA-3 | 17.8 | 82.2 | R+7 |
| WA-4 | 0.1 | 99.9 | R+33 |
| WA-5 | 1.7 | 98.3 | R+21 |
| WA-6 | 99.8 | 0.2 | D+29 |
| WA-7 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+73 |
| WA-8 | 95.6 | 4.4 | D+16 |
| WA-9 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+56 |
| WA-10 | 84.6 | D+100 | |