Polls Closing At 9 p.m.
It’s now 9 p.m. Eastern, which means all polling places are now closed in Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin and Wyoming. Here are our forecasts for the races in those states.
Our final forecasts for the 9 p.m. races
The final numbers from FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for races where the last polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern
| President races | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| chance of winning | |||
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Forecasted avg. vote margin |
| Arizona | 68.0% | 32.0% | D+3 |
| Colorado | 96.8 | 3.2 | D+12 |
| Kansas | 1.4 | 98.6 | R+13 |
| Louisiana | 2.9 | 97.1 | R+19 |
| Michigan | 94.7 | 5.3 | D+8 |
| Minnesota | 95.8 | 4.2 | D+9 |
| Nebraska (statewide) | 0.6 | 99.4 | R+18 |
| Nebraska 1st | 3.9 | 96.1 | R+12 |
| Nebraska 2nd | 71.7 | 28.3 | D+3 |
| Nebraska 3rd | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+47 |
| New Mexico | 97.8 | 2.2 | D+13 |
| New York | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+29 |
| North Dakota | 2.4 | 97.6 | R+22 |
| South Dakota | 5.2 | 94.8 | R+17 |
| Texas | 38.2 | 61.8 | R+2 |
| Wisconsin | 94.4 | 5.6 | D+8 |
| Wyoming | 0.2 | 99.8 | R+35 |
| Senate races | |||
| chance of winning | |||
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Forecasted avg. vote margin |
| Arizona special | 77.8% | 22.2% | D+5 |
| Colorado | 84.2 | 15.8 | D+8 |
| Kansas | 20.3 | 79.7 | R+6 |
| Louisiana | 2.7 | 92.8 | R+15 |
| Michigan | 82.8 | 17.2 | D+7 |
| Minnesota | 94.5 | 5.5 | D+12 |
| Nebraska | 0.1 | 99.9 | R+32 |
| New Mexico | 93.9 | 6.1 | D+13 |
| South Dakota | 0.7 | 99.3 | R+24 |
| Texas | 14.2 | 85.8 | R+7 |
| Wyoming | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+35 |
| House races | |||
| chance of winning | |||
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Forecasted avg. vote margin |
| AZ-1 | 87.6% | 12.4% | D+10 |
| AZ-2 | 97.0 | 3.0 | D+17 |
| AZ-3 | 99.9 | 0.1 | D+34 |
| AZ-4 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+42 |
| AZ-5 | 0.3 | 99.7 | R+28 |
| AZ-6 | 42.9 | 57.1 | R+1 |
| AZ-7 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+57 |
| AZ-8 | 0.6 | 99.4 | R+24 |
| AZ-9 | 99.7 | 0.3 | D+27 |
| CO-1 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+48 |
| CO-2 | 99.8 | 0.2 | D+30 |
| CO-3 | 38.8 | 61.2 | R+2 |
| CO-4 | 2.4 | 97.6 | R+19 |
| CO-5 | 1.1 | 98.9 | R+22 |
| CO-6 | 97.8 | 2.2 | D+18 |
| CO-7 | 99.3 | 0.7 | D+23 |
| KS-1 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+35 |
| KS-2 | 8.8 | 91.2 | R+10 |
| KS-3 | 98.1 | 1.9 | D+17 |
| KS-4 | 0.9 | 99.1 | R+22 |
| LA-1 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+50 |
| LA-2 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+60 |
| LA-3 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+37 |
| LA-4 | 0.5 | 96.8 | R+26 |
| LA-5 | 0.3 | 60.0 | R+27 |
| LA-6 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+43 |
| MI-1 | 1.9 | 98.1 | R+20 |
| MI-2 | 4.6 | 95.4 | R+16 |
| MI-3 | 44.2 | 55.8 | R+1 |
| MI-4 | 0.4 | 99.6 | R+28 |
| MI-5 | 99.5 | 0.5 | D+24 |
| MI-6 | 28.6 | 71.4 | R+5 |
| MI-7 | 10.3 | 89.7 | R+12 |
| MI-8 | 94.1 | 5.9 | D+13 |
| MI-9 | 99.8 | 0.2 | D+28 |
| MI-10 | 0.8 | 99.2 | R+23 |
| MI-11 | 93.4 | 6.6 | D+13 |
| MI-12 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+41 |
| MI-13 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+63 |
| MI-14 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+63 |
| MN-1 | 39.7 | 60.3 | R+2 |
| MN-2 | 93.5 | 6.5 | D+12 |
| MN-3 | 97.3 | 2.7 | D+17 |
| MN-4 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+39 |
| MN-5 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+40 |
| MN-6 | 0.1 | 99.9 | R+30 |
| MN-7 | 19.5 | 80.5 | R+6 |
| MN-8 | 5.0 | 95.0 | R+16 |
| ND | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+37 |
| NE-1 | 2.7 | 97.3 | R+18 |
| NE-2 | 39.5 | 60.5 | R+2 |
| NE-3 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+54 |
| NM-1 | 99.9 | 0.1 | D+23 |
| NM-2 | 55.5 | 44.5 | D+1 |
| NM-3 | 99.9 | 0.1 | D+25 |
| NY-1 | 13.8 | 86.2 | R+8 |
| NY-2 | 57.0 | 43.0 | D+2 |
| NY-3 | 98.9 | 1.1 | D+19 |
| NY-4 | 99.6 | 0.4 | D+25 |
| NY-5 | >99.9 | D+90 | |
| NY-6 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+47 |
| NY-7 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+78 |
| NY-8 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+78 |
| NY-9 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+71 |
| NY-10 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+60 |
| NY-11 | 58.5 | 41.5 | D+2 |
| NY-12 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+68 |
| NY-13 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+83 |
| NY-14 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+58 |
| NY-15 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+88 |
| NY-16 | >99.9 | D+86 | |
| NY-17 | 99.9 | 0.1 | D+29 |
| NY-18 | 96.2 | 3.8 | D+14 |
| NY-19 | 94.3 | 5.7 | D+14 |
| NY-20 | 99.5 | 0.5 | D+24 |
| NY-21 | 4.5 | 95.5 | R+17 |
| NY-22 | 73.1 | 26.9 | D+5 |
| NY-23 | 2.0 | 98.0 | R+16 |
| NY-24 | 35.8 | 64.2 | R+2 |
| NY-25 | 99.8 | 0.2 | D+27 |
| NY-26 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+38 |
| NY-27 | 1.2 | 98.8 | R+21 |
| SD | >99.9 | R+82 | |
| TX-1 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+43 |
| TX-2 | 1.1 | 98.9 | R+21 |
| TX-3 | 9.5 | 90.5 | R+11 |
| TX-4 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+54 |
| TX-5 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+34 |
| TX-6 | 7.7 | 92.3 | R+11 |
| TX-7 | 74.8 | 25.2 | D+5 |
| TX-8 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+55 |
| TX-9 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+60 |
| TX-10 | 8.1 | 91.9 | R+12 |
| TX-11 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+60 |
| TX-12 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+39 |
| TX-13 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+64 |
| TX-14 | 0.5 | 99.5 | R+25 |
| TX-15 | 97.4 | 2.6 | D+18 |
| TX-16 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+41 |
| TX-17 | 2.1 | 97.9 | R+18 |
| TX-18 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+51 |
| TX-19 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+54 |
| TX-20 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+37 |
| TX-21 | 29.1 | 70.9 | R+4 |
| TX-22 | 31.9 | 68.1 | R+4 |
| TX-23 | 74.1 | 25.9 | D+5 |
| TX-24 | 47.7 | 52.3 | EVEN |
| TX-25 | 10.6 | 89.4 | R+9 |
| TX-26 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+34 |
| TX-27 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+33 |
| TX-28 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+34 |
| TX-29 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+48 |
| TX-30 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+54 |
| TX-31 | 5.9 | 94.1 | R+13 |
| TX-32 | 84.0 | 16.0 | D+8 |
| TX-33 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+51 |
| TX-34 | 99.7 | 0.3 | D+29 |
| TX-35 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+41 |
| TX-36 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+49 |
| WI-1 | 0.9 | 99.1 | R+20 |
| WI-2 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+46 |
| WI-3 | 84.1 | 15.9 | D+9 |
| WI-4 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+53 |
| WI-5 | 0.7 | 99.3 | R+22 |
| WI-6 | 1.8 | 98.2 | R+20 |
| WI-7 | 2.6 | 97.4 | R+19 |
| WI-8 | 0.5 | 99.5 | R+25 |
| WY | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+38 |