As I mentioned earlier today on the live blog, I’m anticipating a big gender gap in the vote this year. But it’s not simply Trump’s candidacy that is driving diverging party support between men and women (although it probably explains some of the gap).
A recently published paper by several political scientists suggests that the growing divide between men and women in their vote choice is due to factors that extend beyond each election cycle. They argue that differences in policy preferences have existed for decades (e.g., support varies between men and women on issues like social welfare and criminal justice), but only more recently has issue-based polarization at the elite level (like among members of Congress) more clearly crystalized.
So voters are simply better sorting into the parties that represent their policy interest than they used to be. And according to this paper, the gender gap is widest among more educated Americans, who are more aware of their elite status.