Biden Is Projected To Be The President-Elect. Here’s How It All Went Down.

Well, it’s longer term than just the election, but I’m going to be watching final in-person voting numbers in the states that are being hardest hit by this third wave of COVID-19. Research suggests that human density at the polls has an impact on the spread of disease, so I’d expect to see an uptick in cases a couple of weeks from now in places that had the most dense voter turnout — especially if you have dense voter turnout and already high rates of COVID-19 spread.

I just want to reemphasize for people that initial results could be misleading in many states. For example, one of the bluest counties in Florida will dump a bunch of (probably very Democratic-leaning) mail ballots right after polls close there at 7 p.m. Eastern. That will make the results in Florida look really good for Biden, but the state will probably undergo a “red shift” as Election Day votes are counted.

OK, team. The first polls don’t close until 7 p.m., meaning that’s the earliest we might get a projection (projection is lingo for “call,” reader, and what we’ll be using to describe races that have been Biden or Trump have won). Let’s walk through a little what we can expect then — and as the night progresses, as in many states, the vote count will shift, depending on what ballots are counted.

We’ve taken a crack at outlining when to expect election results in every state, and expect 17 states to have nearly all of their expected vote counted tonight, but what should we be watching tonight as the vote trickles in?