FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

I just want to reemphasize for people that initial results could be misleading in many states. For example, one of the bluest counties in Florida will dump a bunch of (probably very Democratic-leaning) mail ballots right after polls close there at 7 p.m. Eastern. That will make the results in Florida look really good for Biden, but the state will probably undergo a “red shift” as Election Day votes are counted.

Sarah Frostenson

OK, team. The first polls don’t close until 7 p.m., meaning that’s the earliest we might get a projection (projection is lingo for “call,” reader, and what we’ll be using to describe races that have been Biden or Trump have won). Let’s walk through a little what we can expect then — and as the night progresses, as in many states, the vote count will shift, depending on what ballots are counted.

We’ve taken a crack at outlining when to expect election results in every state, and expect 17 states to have nearly all of their expected vote counted tonight, but what should we be watching tonight as the vote trickles in?

Dan Hopkins

Lee and Julia just mentioned the argument that “democracy is on the ballot.” In my panel, I’ve been tracking how many Americans agreed that “at present I feel very critical of our political system.” In October 2012, 54 percent of respondents agreed. But last month, that number was up to 70 percent.


Exit mobile version