Biden Is Projected To Be The President-Elect. Here’s How It All Went Down.

Our forecast shows Biden with a considerable lead. But what would happen if 2020 saw the same type of polling error as we saw in 2016? Galen Druke guides us through the electoral map:

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, mail-in ballots are going to make up a significant chunk of ballots cast this election. One particular concern that some have with the integrity of mail-in voting is the potential for voter fraud from ballots harvested from deceased voters. Recent research from political scientists at Stanford University shows that ballots cast by deceased people are extremely rare. Over the course of 2011-18, the study’s authors found that only 14 of these sorts of ballots have been cast in the state of Washington (where the authors have unique data suitable to test this claim, since the state regularly conducts all-mail elections). This is consistent with other work showing that double-voting is extremely low, and that measures commonly used to address it mistakenly throw out 300 legitimate votes for each double vote detected.

So, we don’t know much at this point. But here’s one thing we do know: We are all experiencing the same snarling anxiety deep in our souls. Ninety percent of Americans agree that “the 2020 presidential election is the most important election in my lifetime.” More than 60 percent say they are “very afraid” if their candidate loses, and 80 percent say they are concerned about election-related violence. So yeah, if you are feeling a little jumpy at this point, you are definitely not alone.