Biden Is Projected To Be The President-Elect. Here’s How It All Went Down.

Our forecast has Pennsylvania as the most likely tipping point state, or the state that will deliver the decisive vote in the Electoral college. Here, FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver discusses whether the outlook in Pennsylvania is different than 2016, when we’ll know the results of the general election, and the chances that the Supreme Court will need to step in to determine the winner of the presidency.

Polls coming into today suggest that Democrats will win big. If that happens — the polls could be off, remember — would Republicans interpret their loss as a mandate to become a more moderate party?

This seems unlikely. The problem is that political parties are not singular entities capable of easily changing course. They are, instead, a loose coalition of officeholders, interest groups, donors, activists, media personalities and many others. All those people and groups jockey and compete for power. Think of a giant tug of war, but instead of two people each pulling on opposite ends of a rope, the GOP has thousands of ropes — and most of the tugging has been toward more extreme and more confrontational versions of the party.

This has meant that over the past few decades, almost all the would-be moderates have either gravitated toward Trump or simply broken away from the party altogether. And all that momentum in the Republican Party will likely keep pulling it in a more confrontational, Trumpian direction — even if he is no longer at the helm.

It’s not just elected officials in the Republican Party who are becoming more extreme. Conservative media is part of this trend as well, as it has long played a central role in shaping the GOP. On some days, it’s hard to tell who’s running the country — Trump, or the Fox News hosts who give him many of his ideas (not to mention the rotating cast of characters who have jumped between the administration and the network). Finally, there are the Republican voters. The GOP is more and more a party of white people without a college degree, especially men and those over age 50.

All these forces will most likely continue to tug at the party, leaving would-be moderates with the same choice they’ve faced for decades: Quit, or get on board.

Earlier today, I told you to wear a damn mask when you go to the polls, and reader Clinton Weir wanted to know … weren’t masks mostly supposed to be useful for preventing the spread of COVID-19 to other people? Do they actually protect the people who wear them, as well?

It’s a super interesting question! And one of those spots where the expert consensus has been shifting in recent months. A lot of this is coming from animal model studies, but researchers are starting to think masks protect the wearer more than we thought they did, initially. For example, a University of Hong Kong study using hamsters found that animals protected by mask material both caught less of the disease and also had less-severe cases of the disease. We’re not talking about perfect protection, by any means, but this is a war of inches, and every bit helps.