Biden Is Projected To Be The President-Elect. Here’s How It All Went Down.

One barrier to interpreting early results in many states is not knowing just how many counted ballots are from early voting, but one thing we should be able to tell is whether any Senate candidates are performing substantially better than their party’s presidential candidate among the same voters. There has been almost no gap in the polls for Senate and President in many states, as those candidates have had trouble separating themselves from their party’s national reputation. Republicans would likely need a candidate-specific Senate vote in Maine and Michigan; Democrats would likely need one in Montana or Kansas. In tight races like North Carolina, even a small advantage for one party’s Senate candidate over their Presidential nominee could be enough for victory.

For the first time in U.S. history, a voter is more likely to have voted before Election Day than on the day itself. That’s the takeaway from the massive early voting numbers we’re seeing around the country, as around 100 million people have already voted, according to the U.S. Elections Project. But let’s try to put that figure in perspective. In 2016, close to 40 percent of 137 million voters cast early ballots in some way, whether by mail or in person — the highest share ever, as the chart below shows.

Yet the FiveThirtyEight presidential forecast estimates that anywhere from 147 million to 168 million people may vote in the 2020 election. So with 100 million or so votes already cast, that means that an overwhelming majority of voters will have voted before Election Day this year.

And the surge in early voting has been driven largely by Democrats, as somewhere around three-fourths of them planned to or already have voted before Election Day, whether by mail or in person, based on recent national polls. By comparison, only a little more than half of Republicans have said the same. In addition, polls suggest that early voting is up across many racial and ethnic groups, but most especially among Black voters, who lean heavily Democratic.

More complicated than what to do with voters who refuse to wear masks is the issue of what to do with election officials who refuse. In Texas, right now, an election judge and her poll workers in Dallas are refusing to wear masks, despite a GOP chair asking them to do so. According to Lauren McGaughy of the Dallas Morning News, there’s no way to remove this judge unless both the Democratic and GOP chairs agree. And while the GOP chair has said he wants mask wearing to happen, removal doesn’t seem to be on the table.