FiveThirtyEight

If Trump loses reelection, we may look back and conclude the coronavirus pandemic was partially to blame. He downplayed the severity of the disease at the outset and was a major contributor to misinformation about the virus and its treatment. Trump is generally perceived to have mishandled the pandemic. According to our tracker of polling data about the coronavirus, 57.2 percent of Americans, on average, disapprove of the president’s response to the crisis, while 39.8 percent approve.

A plurality of Americans also named the coronavirus (or diseases more generally) as the biggest issue facing the country, according to a recent Gallup poll. That’s not exactly a recipe for Trump’s electoral success. Indeed, there was some evidence to suggest Trump’s own diagnosis of COVID-19 hurt him in the polls. And Biden has gotten particularly strong polling numbers lately in Wisconsin, a key swing state that has been hit hard by the coronavirus in recent weeks.