Is 2020 The Year Of The Woman … For The GOP?
After trailing Democratic women for several cycles now, the number of Republican women running for office shot up in 2020 (so did Democrats’, but the gap between the parties shrank).
As we saw in 2018, Democratic women, fueled at least in part by anger at Trump’s election, ran in record numbers, and also won in record numbers. Are Republican women on track to make similar gains in 2020?
Probably not. As Nathaniel and I wrote earlier this year, Republican women didn’t fare as well as Democratic women in their primaries, and the most of the Republican women who did win will be running in tough races. As we reported, most Republican women won primaries that set them up to compete for safe Democratic seats, with fewer running for competitive seats and even fewer running for safe Republican seats. So they likely won’t be improving much on their current numbers, but they should make some gains.
We will be tracking these races where the Republican party nominated a woman to see if more GOP women will be seated in Congress in 2021.
As we saw in 2018, Democratic women, fueled at least in part by anger at Trump’s election, ran in record numbers, and also won in record numbers. Are Republican women on track to make similar gains in 2020?
Probably not. As Nathaniel and I wrote earlier this year, Republican women didn’t fare as well as Democratic women in their primaries, and the most of the Republican women who did win will be running in tough races. As we reported, most Republican women won primaries that set them up to compete for safe Democratic seats, with fewer running for competitive seats and even fewer running for safe Republican seats. So they likely won’t be improving much on their current numbers, but they should make some gains.
We will be tracking these races where the Republican party nominated a woman to see if more GOP women will be seated in Congress in 2021.
Which Republican women are winning?
Chances of winning for Republican women candidates running for House or Senate seats in 2020, according to our final forecast
| Candidate | Incumbent | District | Chances | Proj. to win? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kat Cammack | FL-3 | 98% | — | |
| Cathy McMorris Rodgers | ✓ | WA-5 | 98 | — |
| Jackie Walorski | ✓ | IN-2 | 97 | — |
| Elise Stefanik | ✓ | NY-21 | 95 | — |
| Cindy Hyde-Smith | ✓ | Senate | 88 | — |
| Jaime Herrera Beutler | ✓ | WA-3 | 82 | — |
| Michelle Fischbach | MN-7 | 81 | — | |
| Ann Wagner | ✓ | MO-2 | 69 | — |
| Lauren Boebert | CO-3 | 61 | — | |
| Joni Ernst | ✓ | Senate | 58 | — |
| Beth Van Duyne | TX-24 | 52 | — | |
| Victoria Spartz | IN-5 | 50 | — | |
| Stephanie Bice | OK-5 | 49 | — | |
| Yvette Herrell | NM-2 | 45 | — | |
| Nicole Malliotakis | NY-11 | 42 | — | |
| Susan Collins | ✓ | Senate | 41 | — |
| Nancy Mace | SC-1 | 36 | — | |
| Michelle Steel | CA-48 | 32 | — | |
| Claudia Tenney | NY-22 | 27 | — | |
| Karen Handel | GA-6 | 26 | — | |
| Young Kim | CA-39 | 26 | — | |
| Martha McSally | ✓ | Senate | 22 | — |
| Maria Elvira Salazar | FL-27 | 19 | — | |
| Genevieve Collins | TX32 | 16 | — | |
| Jeanne Ives | IL-6 | 13 | — | |
| Ashley Hinson | IA-1 | 13 | — | |
| Tiffany Shedd | AZ-1 | 12 | — | |
| Mariannette Miller-Meeks | IA-2 | 12 | — | |
| Sandy Smith | NC-1 | 6 | — | |
| Chele Farley | NY-18 | 4 | — | |
| Amy Ryan Courser | OR-5 | 4 | — | |
| Esther Joy King | IL-17 | 4 | — | |
| Rosemary Becchi | NJ-11 | 3 | — | |
| Lisa Scheller | PA-7 | 3 | — | |
| Erin Cruz | CA-36 | 3 | — | |
| Monica De La Cruz-Hernandez | TX-15 | 3 | — | |
| Anna Paulina Luna | FL-13 | 2 | — | |
| Amanda Adkins | KS-3 | 2 | — | |
| Christina Hagan | OH-13 | 2 | — | |
| Tamika Hamilton | CA-3 | 2 | — | |
| Kathy Barnette | PA-4 | 1 | — |