Biden Is Projected To Be The President-Elect. Here’s How It All Went Down.
Is 2020 The Year Of The Woman … For The GOP?
Which Republican women are winning?
Chances of winning for Republican women candidates running for House or Senate seats in 2020, according to our final forecast
| Candidate | Incumbent | District | Chances | Proj. to win? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kat Cammack | FL-3 | 98% | — | |
| Cathy McMorris Rodgers | ✓ | WA-5 | 98 | — |
| Jackie Walorski | ✓ | IN-2 | 97 | — |
| Elise Stefanik | ✓ | NY-21 | 95 | — |
| Cindy Hyde-Smith | ✓ | Senate | 88 | — |
| Jaime Herrera Beutler | ✓ | WA-3 | 82 | — |
| Michelle Fischbach | MN-7 | 81 | — | |
| Ann Wagner | ✓ | MO-2 | 69 | — |
| Lauren Boebert | CO-3 | 61 | — | |
| Joni Ernst | ✓ | Senate | 58 | — |
| Beth Van Duyne | TX-24 | 52 | — | |
| Victoria Spartz | IN-5 | 50 | — | |
| Stephanie Bice | OK-5 | 49 | — | |
| Yvette Herrell | NM-2 | 45 | — | |
| Nicole Malliotakis | NY-11 | 42 | — | |
| Susan Collins | ✓ | Senate | 41 | — |
| Nancy Mace | SC-1 | 36 | — | |
| Michelle Steel | CA-48 | 32 | — | |
| Claudia Tenney | NY-22 | 27 | — | |
| Karen Handel | GA-6 | 26 | — | |
| Young Kim | CA-39 | 26 | — | |
| Martha McSally | ✓ | Senate | 22 | — |
| Maria Elvira Salazar | FL-27 | 19 | — | |
| Genevieve Collins | TX32 | 16 | — | |
| Jeanne Ives | IL-6 | 13 | — | |
| Ashley Hinson | IA-1 | 13 | — | |
| Tiffany Shedd | AZ-1 | 12 | — | |
| Mariannette Miller-Meeks | IA-2 | 12 | — | |
| Sandy Smith | NC-1 | 6 | — | |
| Chele Farley | NY-18 | 4 | — | |
| Amy Ryan Courser | OR-5 | 4 | — | |
| Esther Joy King | IL-17 | 4 | — | |
| Rosemary Becchi | NJ-11 | 3 | — | |
| Lisa Scheller | PA-7 | 3 | — | |
| Erin Cruz | CA-36 | 3 | — | |
| Monica De La Cruz-Hernandez | TX-15 | 3 | — | |
| Anna Paulina Luna | FL-13 | 2 | — | |
| Amanda Adkins | KS-3 | 2 | — | |
| Christina Hagan | OH-13 | 2 | — | |
| Tamika Hamilton | CA-3 | 2 | — | |
| Kathy Barnette | PA-4 | 1 | — |
Where QAnon-Associated Candidates Could Win
There’s been a fair amount of talk this election season about QAnon, something that didn’t even exist four years ago. QAnon is a baseless conspiracy theory whose adherents believe there is a global child sex trafficking ring run by Satan-worshipping elites, and only Trump can stop it. If that sounds unbelievable, you’re going to be stunned by the number of candidates on the ballot who have at some point expressed support of the conspiracy theory, including a few who might win tonight.
Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican running in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District, has tweeted “#GreatAwakening” to Alex Jones, called Q “a patriot” and even hosted videos detailing the “evidence” she believes proves Q is “the real deal.” More recently, though, she’s distanced herself from QAnon. Greene’s opponent dropped out of the race, though his name is still on the ballot, so our forecast gives her very high odds of winning the seat.
Two other Republicans — Lauren Boebert, who’s running in Colorado’s 3rd District, and Burgess Owens, who is running in Utah’s 4th District — have also made comments suggesting a belief in the QAnon conspiracy, though they too have walked back those statements. They’re in tighter races than Greene, so it will be worth watching whether they can pull it off. There are a number of other candidates for U.S. House and Senate around the country, including 17 other Republican nominees, who have made comments sympathetic to QAnon, but our forecast doesn’t give those candidates much of a shot. There won’t be a QAnon caucus in Congress just yet, but being associated with the conspiracy clearly hasn’t disqualified any candidates from landing on the ticket.
The 6 Ballot Measures We’re Watching Super Closely
Some of the most interesting elections of 2020 don’t even have any candidates. There are 121 statewide ballot measures being decided today, such as:
- Proposition 22 in California, which will decide whether Uber, Lyft, DoorDash, etc. drivers and delivery people are independent contractors or employees entitled to legal protections. (Those companies have spent $200 million to ensure it’s the former.)
- Ballot Measure 2 in Alaska, which would implement the nation’s first top-four primary (where the top four vote-getters advance, regardless of party) and ranked-choice voting in the general election. (Massachusetts, via Question 2, is also voting on whether to adopt ranked-choice voting.)
- Amendment #1 in Virginia, which would set up a bipartisan redistricting commission.
- Proposition 115 in Colorado, which would ban abortions after 22 weeks.
- Five ballot measures across four states (Arizona, Montana, New Jersey and South Dakota) that would legalize recreational marijuana.
- And a non-binding statehood referendum in Puerto Rico.
And that’s just scratching the surface; you can read about the other interesting ballot measures we’re watching here.
