Trump Has Lost Support Among White Voters
If Trump loses reelection, one of the main reasons why will be because he lost support compared to 2016 among white voters. Back in mid-October, we compared preelection polling from Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape to 2016 data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study to see how different demographic groups were shifting.
Among the takeaways was Trump’s reduced support among white voters, who will make up around 7 in 10 voters in this election. Whereas Trump won white voters by double digits in 2016, it appears his margin could be halved, mainly because Biden is attracting more support from white women and white voters without a four-year college degree than Clinton did four years ago.
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At the same time, it looks like Trump may have improved his standing among voters of color. For instance, his support has gone up a bit among Black voters, mainly younger Black voters and Black men, as has his backing among Hispanic voters, including those with a college degree. While Trump will likely lose badly among voters of color, a slight uptick in GOP support with those groups could be important if Trump also does better among white voters than preelection polling has suggested.