Which Party Controls Redistricting Is Up For Grabs In 2020
This is the last election before the 2021 redistricting process — which means it could be pivotal to determining whether one party or the other can gerrymander the House map for the next decade. By our reckoning, control of drawing 132 congressional districts (30 percent of the House) is up in the air this election:
Democrats could gain full control of the redistricting process in New York if they win a supermajority in the state Senate; in Pennsylvania and North Carolina if they flip both chambers of the legislature; in Minnesota if they flip the state Senate; and in New Hampshire if they win the governor’s office. Democrats would also retain control of redistricting if Virginia’s Amendment #1, which would set up a bipartisan redistricting commission, fails.
Meanwhile, Republicans could win total redistricting power if they prevent a Democratic takeover of the Texas state House; hold onto both chambers of the North Carolina legislature; keep the governor’s office in Missouri; successfully defend the Iowa state House; retain their supermajorities in the Kansas Legislature; and flip both chambers of the New Hampshire legislature.
For more details about these races, check out my roundup with Elena Mejía.