Biden Is Projected To Be The President-Elect. Here’s How It All Went Down.

This is the last election before the 2021 redistricting process — which means it could be pivotal to determining whether one party or the other can gerrymander the House map for the next decade. By our reckoning, control of drawing 132 congressional districts (30 percent of the House) is up in the air this election:

Democrats could gain full control of the redistricting process in New York if they win a supermajority in the state Senate; in Pennsylvania and North Carolina if they flip both chambers of the legislature; in Minnesota if they flip the state Senate; and in New Hampshire if they win the governor’s office. Democrats would also retain control of redistricting if Virginia’s Amendment #1, which would set up a bipartisan redistricting commission, fails.

Meanwhile, Republicans could win total redistricting power if they prevent a Democratic takeover of the Texas state House; hold onto both chambers of the North Carolina legislature; keep the governor’s office in Missouri; successfully defend the Iowa state House; retain their supermajorities in the Kansas Legislature; and flip both chambers of the New Hampshire legislature.

For more details about these races, check out my roundup with Elena Mejía.

For years, Democrats’ ambitions of turning the Lone Star State blue seemed like something of a pipe dream. Take, for example, when Texas state Sen. Wendy Davis ran for governor — after gaining national attention for filibustering abortion restricitons and raising money from around the country — only to come up 20 points short. But in 2018, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke proved that, under the right conditions, Texas could actually be in play. He lost his bid to unseat Sen. Ted Cruz by a mere 2.6 points.

Now, Texas isn’t quite becoming a purple state. O’Rourke’s performance was likely only possible because he ran against an unusually unpopular incumbent in a national environment dominated by an unpopular Republican president. As a comparison, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott won re-election that same year by a much safer 13 points. But fortunately for Democrats, this year they are running against Trump in Texas rather than an old-school Republican like the Bushes, who — of course — dominated Texas politics for years. And tonight Texas is truly in play, with the chances of Biden winning it at 38 percent.

Traditionally, the idea that Texas could be ripe to turn blue was predicated on the fact that it’s a majority-minority state: 41 percent white, 40 percent Hispanic, 12 percent Black and 5 percent Asian. People of color generally vote for Democrats at much higher rates than white voters, but the challenge for Democrats in Texas has been that the electorate is much whiter than the overall population. Democrats have targeted Hispanic turnout as the way to turn Texas blue, but that goal has been somewhat elusive. And in recent years, much of the leftward shift we’ve seen so far can be chalked up to white, college-educated voters abandoning Trump in the vast suburbs of cities like Houston.

If Biden wins Texas, those voters will have played a big role. But we’ve also seen historic turnout in the state this year, with more people voting before Election Day in 2020 than in the whole 2016 race. So there is some question of whether this will be the year that Democrats finally crack the nut of increasing turnout in Texas.

Let’s talk a bit about voter intimidation and violence this Election Day. As the Bible reminds us, there’s war, and then there are rumors of war — and I want to take a moment to make sure we’re all thinking about the difference.

When I was reporting last week on the risks of violence at the polls, experts on both election law and militia groups took pains to tell me that those risks shouldn’t be blown out of proportion. That’s because there’s a very real risk that amplified fear of violence could create as much (or more) voter intimidation than violence itself. Take, for example, a recent report of an incident in Florida in which word spread on social media that the local Republican Party had hired armed guards who were watching people at the polls. What actually happened: Some security guards who had just gotten off work came to a Trump campaign tent near a polling site to hang out with friends and take pictures.

The experience was a good example of how we need to be careful about how we spread information online. Though some voters waiting in that line certainly felt uncomfortable, the fear and intimidation people might feel if they hear armed guards are policing voting lines might be more intimidating than the actual incident was. And, more importantly, one incident like that isn’t necessarily representative of broader conditions.