Lost Support From White Catholics Could Hurt Trump In The Midwest
One thing I’ll be keeping an eye on as we get a sense for how different groups of Americans voted: How are Trump and Biden doing among white Christians? Four years ago, Trump won handily among white evangelical Protestants, white Catholics and white mainline Protestants. I checked in on where the candidates stood among different religious groups last week and found that while Trump’s still holding strong among white evangelical Protestants -- his support among this group might have actually increased -- there are signs he’s struggling among white Catholics.
White Christians are more supportive of Trump
Share of registered voters who say they support Trump or Biden, by religious affiliation and race/ethnicity
| Trump | Biden | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| White evangelical Protestant | 78% | 17% | +61 |
| White non-evangelical Protestant | 53 | 43 | +10 |
| Black Protestant | 9 | 90 | +81 |
| White non-Hispanic Catholic | 52 | 44 | +8 |
| Hispanic Catholic | 26 | 67 | +41 |
| Jewish | 27 | 70 | +43 |
| NET Unaffiliated | 22 | 71 | +49 |
| Atheist | 7 | 88 | +81 |
| Agnostic | 15 | 79 | +64 |
| Nothing in particular | 31 | 62 | +31 |
Slipping among white Catholics is not a good thing for Trump, because lots of them live in Midwest swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Experts told me that his lower poll numbers with this group could be due to a few things. One is that white Catholics don’t give Trump high marks for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic or the racial justice protests this summer. And another is that Biden is himself a white Catholic from Pennsylvania who has woven his faith into his political biography -- so people from that religious and cultural background might feel more of a connection with him.