Whoever Wins The 2020 Election Will Have To Repair A Damaged Economy

The economy has kind of taken a back seat in the lead-up to the 2020 election, which might seem a little surprising, given that the COVID-19 pandemic caused a historically large spike in unemployment just a few months ago, and the labor force (and much of the rest of the economy) is still very far from normal. But even though it hasn’t been the preeminent campaign issue, repairing the economy will almost certainly be a major challenge for whichever candidate wins today’s election — not to mention for both houses of Congress.

That’s because even though unemployment has been falling, it’s still quite high. And in a recent round of our survey of economic forecasters, the panel collectively thought there was a 66 percent chance that GDP won’t return to its pre-pandemic level until 2022 or later.

Congress did, of course, pass a large economic stimulus bill back in March. But since then, the House and the Senate have been deadlocked over a second round of relief, with Trump oscillating between cutting off negotiations and calling for Republicans and Democrats in Congress to make a deal. The debate over financial assistance to Americans facing a new wave of COVID-19 cases as winter approaches has mostly been overshadowed in recent weeks by the confirmation of Justice Amy Coney Barrett and the final stages of the campaign. But it’s sure to emerge again as a crucial issue once the election is over — and the type of relief that’s offered could vary a lot depending on whether Democrats emerge from the 2020 election with a trifecta (the presidency, Senate and House), or if control of the federal government remains split between the parties.