As Nate said, Kendra Horn in the Oklahoma 5th is the biggest upset of the night according to our forecast so far.
The biggest upsets so far
As of 11:24 p.m.
| race | state/district | winner | party | pre-election FiveThirtyEight win probability | current lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| House | OK-5 | Kendra Horn | D | 6.6% | D+1.4 |
| House | NY-11 | Max Rose | D | 20.3 | D+5.5 |
| Governor | Florida | Ron DeSantis | R | 22.2 | R+0.9 |