Our final update to the “Deluxe” model of the House forecast ends in a fun coincidence — the district most likely to tip the House toward either party is Michigan’s 8th, Nate’s home district!
Chance that each House race is the one that decides control
Top 30 races most likely to give a party its 218th U.S. House seat (and therefore majority control), according to the final “Deluxe” version of FiveThirtyEight’s forecast
| Tipping point chance | ||
|---|---|---|
| Michigan 8th | 2.2% | |
| New York 19th | 2.2 | |
| Illinois 14th | 2.2 | |
| Utah 4th | 2.2 | |
| New Jersey 3rd | 2.2 | |
| Iowa 3rd | 2.1 | |
| California 45th | 2.0 | |
| California 10th | 2.0 | |
| Illinois 6th | 2.0 | |
| New Jersey 7th | 2.0 | |
| Washington 8th | 2.0 | |
| California 48th | 1.9 | |
| North Carolina 9th | 1.9 | |
| New York 22nd | 1.9 | |
| Kansas 2nd | 1.9 | |
| Minnesota 1st | 1.9 | |
| Maine 2nd | 1.9 | |
| Virginia 7th | 1.9 | |
| New Mexico 2nd | 1.8 | |
| Michigan 11th | 1.7 | |
| Minnesota 3rd | 1.7 | |
| Minnesota 2nd | 1.7 | |
| California 25th | 1.6 | |
| Florida 26th | 1.6 | |
| California 39th | 1.6 | |
| Colorado 6th | 1.5 | |
| Kansas 3rd | 1.5 | |
| Texas 32nd | 1.5 | |
| Virginia 10th | 1.5 | |
| Nevada 3rd | 1.5 | |