FiveThirtyEight
Perry Bacon Jr.

In terms of identity and politics, even as the parties have these high-profile shifts, that’s not totally where the voters are. Remember, about 37 percent of Trump’s voters in 2016 were NOT whites without degrees (meaning they were either minorities or whites with college degrees.) About 60 percent of Clinton’s supporters were white, so the Democrats are not a party dominated by blacks and Latinos. Democrats are likely to make gains in the Midwest in 2018 in part because there are a lot of whites without degrees in the Midwest who are either Democrats or who swing between the two parties.


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