It’s Time To Start Thinking About The Next Redistricting Cycle
Electoral maps are used for about a decade before they are scrapped and redrawn by (in most cases) state legislatures. The current batch of maps is up for a redo in 2021, after the 2020 census. At least one-eighth of the state legislators elected tonight (generally state senators with longer terms) will still be in office when it’s time to vote on new maps, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Twenty-nine of the 36 governors elected tonight will have veto power over the maps.
That is a big deal. Part of the reason the past seven years have been so electorally rosy for Republicans is that they controlled many more state governments than Democrats did in 2011, when electoral maps were redrawn. As a result, Republicans could gerrymander the maps in their favor.
In most states, the key to determining whether a party will have free rein to gerrymander is whether that party controls the two legislative chambers and the governor’s mansion — a trifecta of electoral power. My colleague Nathaniel Rakich did a great job of laying out where trifectas could be gained or lost tonight.
Some key states that are at risk of losing Republican-favored trifectas: Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Georgia, Florida and Oklahoma. If Democrats break those trifectas by winning gubernatorial elections, they’ll be able to prevent Republicans from gerrymandering there in 2021. (In Ohio, changes to the redistricting process that were approved by voters this year could also prevent that. As could changes that are on the ballot in Michigan today.) In states such as Maine, Illinois, Nevada and New Mexico, Democrats could gain trifectas tonight, putting themselves on the path to gerrymander in 2021 if they can keep control through the next election.