What Went Down In The 2018 Midterms

The Laura Kelly win in the Kansas’s governor race is big. Kobach was one of the most Trump-aligned gubernatorial candidates in the country. Wary of Kobach, a slew of longtime Republican officials in the state had endorsed Kelly, the Democrat.

ABC News projects Democratic wins in eight House races — KS-3, MN-3, NJ-9, NJ-11, NJ-12, NY-3, NY-11 (😲) and VA-2.

ABC News also projects Republican wins in seven House races — MO-7, MO-8, NE-3, OH-14, TN-3, WI-5 and WV-2.

ABC News projects that Republican Mitt Romney will win the Senate race in Utah.

If the theme of the night is going to be Democrats doing well in Romney-Clinton districts (i.e., well-educated suburbs), the Texas 7th Congressional District is a good race to watch. It swung the most of any district outside of Utah from Romney to Clinton between 2012 and 2016. With 10 percent of precincts reporting, Democrat Lizzie Fletcher is leading incumbent Republican John Culberson by 4 points.

Also, congratulations to Sen. Mitt Romney, whose race was just called in Utah.

Democrats are starting to make things interesting in a few seats where Republicans were favored. For example, Democrat Ron DiNicola leads Republican Rep. Mike Kelly 52 percent to 47 percent with 51 percent reporting. And Democrat Max Rose leads Republican Rep. Dan Donovan 52 percent to 48 percent.

The Kansas 3rd attracted $7.5 million in outside spending, ranking 36th among all House races. Unusually, about a quarter of that money was spent on positive messages about Sharice Davids — most of the expensive House races saw a much lower percentage of positive spending for the Democratic candidate, and much more spent in opposition.

Whoa, big surprise as Democrats pick up Staten Island. Very good pickup for them.

It looks like Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, a Republican, isn’t likely to win his state’s gubernatorial race — Democrat Laura Kelly has a large lead.

Alabama looks like it will probably pass a state policy against abortion. With 31 percent of precincts reporting, 66 percent have voted yes on Amendment 2, which would make it state policy to ‘recognize and support the sanctity of unborn life.’

In a race that had some very strange polling, Republican John James is currently leading Democratic incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow in Michigan by 1.5 points. But relatively little has been reported so far from Detroit’s Wayne County.

The New Jersey 11th and Minnesota 3rd have also been called for Democrats. We’re now up to eight Democratic pickups in the House. (They need 23.)

ABC News projects that Republican Phil Scott will win the gubernatorial race in Vermont.

I only have nearly complete Senate data for a few dozen counties now, but in Florida, it’s noteworthy that the key demographic predictor of backing Scott is just what it was for Trump in 2016: the percentage of the county that is college-educated. In Florida at least, population density isn’t predictive once you account for the percentage with a bachelor’s degree.

New York governor Andrew Cuomo has just won his third term, and Wisconsin governor Scott Walker is still in the running for his third term. But in most states, this isn’t an option. According to Ballotpedia, only 12 states have no term limits for their top executives. The remaining states have either lifetime limits or limits on consecutive terms. It’s not surprising that states without limits are in the minority – term limits are really popular with voters.

Kristen, I’m definitely eager to start getting returns from Montana’s Senate race — I think that the Tester race was lightly polled and a bit of a sleeper.

I’m still waiting for the completely-out-of-nowhere big race to emerge. I feel like there’s always one. Remember in 2014, when nobody had paid attention to Virginia’s Senate race and suddenly votes come in and Ed Gillespie almost pulled it off? Anyone have any wild, irresponsible guesses about what race might turn out that way this year?

The Kansas 3rd was just called for Democrats in the Kansas City suburbs. Davids had moved ahead in the polling, so not a huge surprise. But it’s a good pickup all the same, and Dems can breathe a bit easier in the House.

Fun random fact about Jared Polis: He became wealthy by getting into the online greeting card business in the 1990s.

ABC News projects Democratic wins in seven House races — CO-6, IL-1, IL-11, LA-2, MA-3, MI-13 and WI-4.

ABC News also projects Republican wins in MD-1 and SD-AL.

The Republican, Andy Barr, won in Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District, a race that our model categorized as a toss-up. The Democrat was a celebrity who raised a lot of money. There was $8 million in outside spending in this district. But, in general, Democrats don’t need the race to win the House, says Nathaniel Rakich.

Has Curbelo conceded?

According to CNN, North Carolina is a “yes” on its voter ID measure, which would amend the state’s constitution to require voters to provide photo ID when they vote in person. The legislature passed a similar requirement back in 2013, but it was overturned by the courts, saying it targeted black voters with “almost surgical precision.”

Here’s a reminder of why these good results for Republicans in the Senate contests are such a big deal: There are lots of things the Senate can do regardless of how the House turns out, namely confirm judges and other nominees. Even if the House flips control, as long as Mitch McConnell is in charge, Republicans still have the ability to shape the judiciary. A Democratic House would have investigative powers but no real ability to unilaterally implement policy.

ABC News has projected the Colorado 6th, Pennsylvania 5th and Pennsylvania 17th. All three are Democratic pickups of Republican seats. They are now about a quarter of the way to a majority.

It’s almost 10 p.m. on the East Coast, which means polls are about to close in southern Idaho, Iowa, Montana, Nevada, part of one county in Oregon and Utah. According to our pre-election forecast, Montana and Nevada will both be states to watch in the Senate, although Democrats are favored in both. If it’s governors offices you seek, cast your eyes to Iowa and Nevada, both key Democratic pickup opportunities. The House takes a bit of a breather this hour; only the Iowa 3rd and Utah 4th are expected to bring real suspense.

In the 49 counties where we’ve got nearly complete data in the Florida Senate race, the correlation between county-level voting in this Senate race and in 2016 is a whopping 0.99.

With Coffman’s race having been called as a Democratic pickup and Curbelo looking wobbly, a bit more reason for Democratic optimism now. They haven’t won any really tough races yet, but they may win the ones they need to.

Kansas results are beginning to trickle in. Republicans are on the defense in two seats, Kansas 2nd and Kansas 3rd. The 2nd is an open seat that is 19 points more Republican than the country, but Democrat Paul Davis is ahead with a 15-point lead and 20 percent of precincts reporting. Democrats still need to win some tough toss-up seats for a House majority, and this definitely would be one.

Democrats are doing what they need to do, part 487: With 47 percent reporting in the Minnesota 3rd, Democrat Dean Phillips is crushing Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen 57 percent to 43 percent. With 21 percent reporting in the Illinois 6th, Democrat Sean Casten is beating Republican Rep. Peter Roskam 54 percent to 46 percent. With 15 percent reporting in the Michigan 11th, Democrat Haley Stevens is leading Republican Lena Epstein 54 percent to 43 percent.

So far, West Virginia’s abortion ballot initiative is looking like a nail-biter. CNN is showing that with about 67 percent of the vote in, votes in favor lead by about 8,000. The measure would prevent state Medicaid funding from being used for abortions and weaken abortion protections (which would be important if Roe v. Wade is ever overturned).

Democrats have picked up a couple of House seats in Pennsylvania, but they were pretty much layups as a result of redistricting.

To clarify my post: Polis will be the first openly gay man to be governor. We already have an openly bisexual governor, Kate Brown of Oregon.

Heitkamp was a big underdog in the polls, but she’s losing by 20 points with 14 percent of precincts reported so far. It’s a very rough night for Democrats in very Trumpy areas.

With 16 percent of the vote reported in Kansas, Democrat Laura Kelly is running ahead of Republican Kris Kobach by 13 points in the gubernatorial race.

With 50 percent reporting in Colorado, Democrat Jared Polis leads Republican Walker Stapleton 54 percent to 43 percent in the race for governor. He should soon clinch the distinction of being the nation’s first openly gay governor.

Let’s pull back on the Senate map for a moment: We’re still waiting to see how red state Democrats in Missouri, North Dakota, Texas and Florida will do. With 86 percent of precincts reporting, Bill Nelson could especially be in trouble right now. Two red state Democrats have already lost in Indiana and Tennessee, and each ran pretty strong campaigns. That’s got to be making Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Bill Nelson of Florida especially nervous, since they’re locked in the tightest races. At this point Democrats might just be rooting to staunch the bleeding.

From a Floridian who knows what he’s talking about:

Democrats have strong leads in the redistricted Pennsylvania seats that they were expected to easily pick up: the 5th, the 6th, the 7th and the 17th. Notably, in the 17th, Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb is defeating Republican Rep. Keith Rothfus 61 percent to 39 percent in a battle of incumbents.

Speaking of high turnout:

https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/1059994080107749376

Turnout among nonwhite voters looks like it might hit a record in Georgia. Preliminary exit polls report 40 percent turnout among nonwhite voters, including 30 percent turnout among black voters. In 2014, the nonwhite voter turnout was 36 percent. Still, these numbers could change as more of the vote is counted. In addition, as the Pew Research Center has reported, exit polls have some major problems when it comes to estimating turnout.

Democrat Mikie Sherrill — one of the party’s strongest candidates in the country — is also dominating in the New Jersey 11th, another well-educated, well-off suburban district. She leads Republican Jay Webber 57 percent to 42 percent.