In the Maine 2nd District, Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin leads Democrat Jared Golden 46.3 percent to 45.5 percent. In other words, it looks like no candidate will win a majority, which means it’s ranked-choice voting time! With two left-leaning independents in the race, it’s very possible that their voters will break toward Golden and Poliquin’s initial lead will disappear after a few rounds of ranked-choice runoffs. If that happens, Poliquin has left the door open to challenging the result in court, which … could get messy.
About half of Montana’s precincts have reported, and incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester holds a 2-point lead over Republican Matt Rosendale.
The results are in for three of the four women who would be their state’s first female governors. Two of these women won their races — Republican Kristi Noem of South Dakota and Democrat Janet Mills in Maine. Idaho’s Paulette Jordan, a Democrat, lost. The Associated Press has not yet called the race in Georgia between Democrat Stacey Abrams and Republican Brian Kemp.
All Elections Are 'Choose Your Own Narrative'
The narrative of this election seems to be that it lends itself to any — and no — narrative. I wrote earlier that there were several narrative possibilities for a House-Senate split. Not all narratives, after all, have to be strictly ideological. Sometimes results are driven by empirical regularities: The president’s party tends to lose seats — as it did in the House — and the map was bad for Democrats, as it proved to be. It’s true that usually an election is good for one party or another, but what a party victory means about public attitudes and policy is often up for grabs. All major election narratives simplify reality and rely on elites and media reports to zero in on the story they’d like to tell.
Although some races are still outstanding, it’s looking like Democrats could win a higher share of Romney-Clinton districts than Obama-Trump districts.
How Romney-Clinton districts are voting so far
As of 1:29 a.m.
How Obama-Trump districts are voting so far
As of 1:29 a.m.
ABC News projects Republican wins in NV-2 and TX-2.
Republicans have posted their first win in a district that leaned Democratic in our forecast. Republican Steve Watkins defeats Democrat Paul Davis by 2 percentage points in the Kansas 2nd. This despite the fact that Davis carried the district during his 2014 gubernatorial run and that Watkins was accused of sexual misconduct late in the race.
Looks like my favorite bellwether and native district, Michigan 8, will go to Democrats:
In the lead-up to tonight, there was some talk about Republican gerrymanders backfiring and helping to elect Democrats. That did not happen. Although Democrats overcame Republican gerrymanders in select places, overall, the maps held up pretty well. And they’re responsible in part for ensuring that Democrats didn’t completely crush in the House.
In what was a surprisingly close South Dakota gubernatorial race, Republican Kristi Noem has defeated Democrat Billie Sutton 52 percent to 47 percent.
Texas 7 was a “toss-up” race, bringing the Democratic count of “toss-up” race wins to five. There are five “toss-up” races still outstanding.
How ‘toss-up’ districts are voting so far
As of 1:25 a.m.
With Democrat Lizzie Pannill Fletcher’s win in the Texas 7th, you can make a pretty good argument that the O’Rourke campaign brought Democrats two House seats tonight in Texas. (The other is Texas 32, where incumbent Republican Pete Sessions lost.)
ABC News projects Republican wins in CA-8, CA-22 and TX-22; and Democratic wins in CA-16 and TX-7.
Like Nathaniel mentioned, Republican incumbent Mimi Walters is leading in California’s 45th district. But it’s still way too early. The 45th, which covers a large chunk of southern Orange County, has been the focus of groups like Swing Left because in 2016, the district split its vote — voters went slightly for Clinton but re-elected Walters. I am interested to see how the 45th will turn out because the Democratic candidate, Katie Porter, won a competitive primary, just edging out the slightly more moderate choice, Dave Min.
WE HAVE RESULTS IN NEVADA!! With most precincts reporting in Carson City, Republican Adam Laxalt leads 53-41 in the gubernatorial race, and Republican Dean Heller leads 54-41 in the Senate race. Trump won Carson City by 14 points, so they’re both running slightly behind the president. That’s bad news for Laxalt and Heller, as Trump lost Nevada by 2 points.
ABC News projects a Democratic win in CA-35.
Devin Nunes has won re-election in California, ABC News projects.
As we wait for the last remaining races to be called, here is the latest list of seats that have flipped parties. As you can see, the Democrats have a substantial edge.
Which seats have changed parties so far
As of 1:14 a.m.
But re: California, it’s worth remembering that results tend to get better for Democrats the more ballots are counted.
There is an old debate about whether midterm election outcomes are partially caused by declines in turnout from the president’s party and/or increases in turnout from the (more motivated) opposition party. In contrast to 2006, 2010 and 2014, however, there was little sign of demotivation among the president’s party this cycle. Consistent with those polls, we are seeing very high turnout, but it is not only among Democrats.
I know I keep banging the nationalization drum, but it’s a symptom of nationalization that the gubernatorial races can sometimes feel like an afterthought, even though they have profound real-world consequences.
As Nate said, California and Washington will take days to finalize their votes, but Republicans are currently leading in several competitive House races there: the California 10th, 25th, 39th and 45th and the Washington 3rd and 5th (the 5th has even been called for Republican Cathy McMorris Rodgers).
We’ve been speculating about how big the gender gap would be in this election. Although we won’t know for sure until all the votes are in, here’s what it looks like in a few key Senate races, according to preliminary exit-poll data (as it currently stands):
- West Virginia Senate: 56 percent of women voted for Democratic incumbent Joe Manchin, and 52 percent of men voted for Republican challenger Patrick Morrisey.
- Florida Senate: 56 percent of women voted for Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson, and 58 percent of men voted for Republican Rick Scott.
- Missouri Senate: 51 percent of women voted for Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill, and 57 percent of men voted for Republican Josh Hawley.
Counting states that were NOT up for election, we project that Democrats will control governorships in states containing at least 162 million people, and Republicans states with at least 142 million people. Another 23 million people are states that haven’t yet been called.
ABC News projects that Republican Kristi Noem will win the gubernatorial race in South Dakota.
In the Arizona Senate race, Republican Martha McSally currently leads statewide 49.2 percent to 48.5 percent. But Democrat Kyrsten Sinema leads in Maricopa County 49.5 percent to 48.4 percent, and lots of that has yet to report.
Michigan 8 (Nate’s hometown district and my district) is an example of the importance of quality challengers, but also a sign that our traditional definition of quality might need to be updated. Republican Mike Bishop won by 17 percentage points in 2016, when the Democrats had to run an unknown candidate after actress Melissa Gilbert dropped out of the race. This year, Democrat Elissa Slotkin entered the race, and the district was targeted from the beginning. Like neighboring district victor Haley Stevens, she had Obama administration experience but had not held elective office in the district (political scientists’ traditional definition of a quality candidate).
Keep in mind that about half of the truly uncertain House seats remaining are in California, and another one is in Alaska, and those states take a LOOOOOOOOOOOOOooonononong time to finalize results. So we might not know the precise number of Democratic gains for a few days.
Montana Senate results continue to trickle in. One of the bluest counties of any size, Silver Bow County, is almost entirely in. Tester leads there by 46 points, and he won it by 45 points in 2012, when he won re-election by a bit less than 4 points statewide. So Tester may be where he needs to be, but Republican Matt Rosendale definitely has a shot of winning.
In races for attorney general, Republicans have held Arizona, Florida, Ohio and Texas. They also lead in Georgia and Connecticut, the latter of which we were expecting to be an easy Democratic hold. The only call for a Democratic AG candidate in a close race is for U.S. Rep. Keith Ellison in Minnesota, who won 50-45 despite allegations that he physically and emotionally abused his ex-partner.
It was a pretty bad night for Democrats in competitive secretary of state races, which are important because they administer elections in most states. Republicans have held Arizona, Iowa, Kansas and Ohio, and they lead in Georgia. Democrats have flipped Colorado and lead in Michigan.
ABC News is projecting that GOP Rep. Rob Woodall has won the Georgia 7th, where he leads Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux 51 percent to 49 percent. Apparently, there was a data error earlier that gave Bourdeaux the lead.
Speaking of scandal, it was in August when Republican Rep. Hunter in California 50 was indicted on charges of using campaign funds for personal expenses. His challenger is 29-year-old Palestinian-Mexican-American Ammar Campa Najjar, another candidate who is an Obama alum.
ABC News projects Democratic wins in CA-46 and NJ-2 and a Republican win in GA-7.
If you’re wondering why there are no results in from Nevada, the reason is that the state isn’t willing to report numbers when people are still standing in line to vote.
This is a CRAZY amount of turnout for a midterm.
In Wisconsin, Dane County continues to produce ever-larger Democratic majorities for statewide candidates. Scott Walker lost the liberal stronghold by more than 100,000 votes in 2014. His deficit there is nearing 150,000 in 2018.
When people ask me about GOP governors, Matt, I point them to your book with David Hopkins (no relation) and explain that the parties are asymmetric. In particular, Democratic voters seem to back Republican governors in heavily Democratic states with some frequency — see Massachusetts, Maryland and Vermont.
After 2016, there was a lot of talk about how Democrats had done better in Texas and Arizona than they had in previous years and about how Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan had unexpectedly voted for Trump. A resulting question was whether a major geographic shift was underway, with the Midwest moving away from the Democrats and the Southwest (including Nevada) drifting in a bluer direction. Tonight has stood athwart that narrative yelling, “Stop!” Texas was much closer than anyone expected, but Ted Cruz kept his Senate seat (though the Democrats picked up several House seats). So far, Arizona is still anyone’s guess, as is Nevada. But in the Midwest and the Plains states, there will be Democratic governors in Kansas and Michigan (Wisconsin remains too close to call, and Republican Kim Reynolds has won the governorship in Iowa). Democrats have also picked up a seat in Kansas’s 3rd District and two seats in Iowa. Although political geography is incredibly important and state partisanship seems to have driven the competitive Senate races, regions are complicated.
And ABC News has now officially called Iowa 4 for King. There’s going to be a lot of disappointment in Democratic circles about not beating him or Chris Collins — and Duncan Hunter leads in the VERY early vote count in California 50. But they’re all way underperforming what you’d ordinarily expect Republicans to get in those states. Scandals matter quite a bit — but sometimes they matter by shifting a 16-point loss to a 3-point loss.
Texas Senate was called a while ago, but Democrat Beto O’Rourke is only down 3 points to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. A narrow loss probably sets up O’Rourke, an epic fundraiser and viral video hero, to take a shot at running for president, if he wants to.
We have another Democratic trifecta in Maine. Democrat Janet Mills has defeated Republican Shawn Moody for governor, and Democrats have flipped the state Senate. (They already had control of the state House.)
ABC News projects Republican wins in CA-42 and KS-2 (😮) and Democratic wins in ME-1 and MN-7.
The margin is razor-thin in the Michigan 8th District. Democrat Elissa Slotkin has a 49 percent to 48 percent lead over Republican Rep. Mike Bishop. Local news outlet MIRS has called the race for Slotkin, but no one else is going out on that limb.
Back in August, my colleague Nathaniel Rakich put together data on the best Libertarian statewide election performances. Gary Johnson is at 15.1 percent in the New Mexico Senate race, which would about tie him for the third-highest Libertarian performance ever.
One exception to the nationalization pattern is the success of Republican governors in the Northeast. Incumbent and moderate Republican governors are coasting in Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Vermont. We will see if Bob Stefanowski can hold his current lead over Ned Lamont in Connecticut.
Democratic incumbent Collin Peterson has held on in Minnesota 7, a district that’s 25 points more Republican than the country. Peterson was expected to win, and the margin was a bit closer than expected, but it’s still a good example of how some incumbents are much stronger than others.
ABC News has called Chris Collins the winner in New York 27.