What Went Down In The 2018 Midterms

I’ve been looking at patterns in House races all morning. One thing that jumped out to me: Making a viral video and becoming an overnight Democratic sensation didn’t translate into actual wins. MJ Hegar in the Texas 31st, Amy McGrath in the Kentucky 6th and Randy Bryce in the Wisconsin 1st all lost in what are pretty red districts. However, the money they raised almost certainly helped them run a more competitive race than they otherwise would have. Hegar lost by just 3 points in a district Trump won by 13 points in 2016; McGrath lost by 3 in a district won by 15 poitnts. And Bryce underperformed, losing by 13 points in a district Trump won by 10 points.