It looks like Democrats will just fall short in several “lean R” districts, but they managed one upset in the New York 11th — a “likely Republican” district. And there are still opportunities for Democrats to upset in other forecasted red districts.
How ‘lean’ and ‘likely’ Republican districts are voting
As of 10:20 p.m.
| Pre-election forecast | Tonight’s returns | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| race | category | GOP win prob. | % reporting | Vote Margin | ABC Projection |
| FL-15 | Lean R | 63.5% | 99% | R+6.2 | ✔ R |
| OH-12 | Lean R | 64.8 | 87 | R+4.7 | ✔ R |
| NC-13 | Lean R | 65.0 | 25 | R+2.2 | ✔ R |
| NE-2 | Lean R | 67.7 | 100 | R+4.1 | |
| VA-5 | Lean R | 70.0 | 99 | R+8.1 | ✔ R |
| PA-10 | Lean R | 71.2 | 61 | D+1.0 | |
| MI-7 | Likely R | 75.1 | 30 | D+1.3 | |
| IL-12 | Likely R | 75.5 | 59 | R+19.1 | |
| IL-13 | Likely R | 77.4 | 56 | D+12.4 | |
| FL-6 | Likely R | 78.4 | 99 | R+12.7 | ✔ R |
| TX-23 | Likely R | 79.2 | 23 | D+0.1 | |
| NY-11 | Likely R | 79.7 | 93 | D+4.6 | ✔ D |
| NY-27 | Likely R | 79.7 | 24 | R+0.2 | |
| WI-1 | Likely R | 81.1 | 67 | R+17.6 | |
| MN-8 | Likely R | 82.1 | 26 | R+17.7 | |
| OH-1 | Likely R | 82.3 | 48 | R+13.0 | |
| MT-AL | Likely R | 82.3 | 7 | D+0.6 | |
| MI-6 | Likely R | 82.9 | 23 | R+8.7 | |
| NY-24 | Likely R | 83.5 | 3 | R+15.8 | |
| FL-25 | Likely R | 83.5 | 98 | R+21.4 | ✔ R |
| GA-7 | Likely R | 84.8 | 48 | D+6.2 | |
| NY-2 | Likely R | 85.2 | 15 | R+5.1 | |
| NC-2 | Likely R | 85.7 | 48 | R+1.6 | |
| AZ-8 | Likely R | 86.7 | 0 | R+12.5 | |
| OH-14 | Likely R | 87.4 | 67 | R+13.2 | ✔ R |
| TX-22 | Likely R | 88.1 | 80 | R+5.8 | |
| IA-4 | Likely R | 88.6 | 0 | R+0.3 | |
| PA-16 | Likely R | 89.0 | 64 | D+1.3 | |
| CO-3 | Likely R | 89.4 | 53 | R+9.2 | |
| AR-2 | Likely R | 90.0 | 44 | R+9.5 | ✔ R |
| FL-16 | Likely R | 90.2 | 99 | R+9.3 | ✔ R |
| WV-3 | Likely R | 90.3 | 86 | R+12.5 | ✔ R |
| TX-21 | Likely R | 90.5 | 26 | R+2.2 | |
| SC-1 | Likely R | 91.4 | 50 | R+4.9 | |
| MO-2 | Likely R | 91.5 | 0 | D+0.3 | |
| FL-18 | Likely R | 92.0 | 98 | R+8.9 | ✔ R |
| NY-23 | Likely R | 92.1 | 20 | R+15.5 | |
| NC-8 | Likely R | 93.2 | 89 | R+9.7 | |
| OK-5 | Likely R | 93.4 | 88 | D+1.6 | |
| OH-10 | Likely R | 94.1 | 65 | R+10.7 | |
| NY-21 | Likely R | 94.2 | 23 | R+9.8 | |
| TX-2 | Likely R | 94.6 | 74 | R+7.4 | |
| IN-9 | Likely R | 94.9 | 62 | R+23.1 | ✔ R |
| TX-31 | Likely R | 94.9 | 0 | R+1.7 | |
| NC-7 | Likely R | 94.9 | 70 | R+12.9 | |
| AZ-6 | Likely R | 95.0 | 0 | R+12.7 | |