Will Tonight Be An Electoral Realignment?
Julia: I’ve seen some arguments about whether tonight’s elections will indicate an electoral realignment — a lasting and fundamental shift in the party system and the party’s electoral coalitions. If you ask most political scientists, they’ll tell you that electoral realignments are not a thing. It’s fun to look at big, important contests in history like 1932, 1896, or 1860 as the moments when everything changed. But change is gradual, and it’s rare that we see a single election where the issues and coalitions change in a big, clear way.
Seth: Big, realigning elections might not be a thing, but party coalitions are always shifting somewhat. (Mike Dukakis won West Virginia and lost New Jersey!) And 2016 saw some important shifts, particularly regarding education. More-educated voters shifted left while less-educated voters shifted right. One of the big questions is whether this is a durable shift in the electorate, whether it’s specifically tied to Trump’s appeals, or what. We may get some indication of that tonight, although if Democrats do well in some places where they did poorly in 2016, it might not be clear whether that’s because white voters with less education shifted back to the Democrats or if they just didn’t show up to vote.
Julia: In that case, there might be some evidence for a refinement of the concept of a realignment. Back in 2016, I predicted that there might be a “recalibration” rather than a realignment, where the coalitions stayed the same but the issues that shaped party conflict changed. I think we’ve seen that come true somewhat, as identity issues have become more salient. But partisan divisions over race and cultural issues have been in the making for a long time. The emerging education gap is potentially a real change. In other words, it’s not that everything is suddenly different in party politics, but a few durable shifts can alter the terrain significantly.