California's Starring Role On Election Night
Big, blue California has the potential to get even bluer today, and if that happens, it could be key to Democrats’ taking control of the House. Democrats already run rampant in California — 39 of the state’s 53 representatives are Democrats. The Deluxe version of FiveThirtyEight’s final pre-election forecast rates 40 of today’s U.S. House races as “solid Democratic.” But it could get even more dire for Republicans. Nine additional congressional races in the state are considered competitive — that is, they are rated as “likely Democratic,” “lean Democratic,” “toss-up,” “lean Republican” or “likely Republican.”
California could get bluer
Competitive* U.S. House races in California, according to FiveThirtyEight’s final pre-election Deluxe forecast
| candidates | PRE-ELECTION FIVETHIRTYEIGHT forecast | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Republican | Democrat | Vote margin | rating |
| CA-1 | Doug LaMalfa | Audrey Denney | R+10.6 | Likely R |
| CA-4 | Tom McClintock | Jessica Morse | R+8.2 | Likely R |
| CA-10 | Jeff Denham | Josh Harder | D+4.2 | Lean D |
| CA-21 | David Valadao | TJ Cox | R+7.5 | Likely R |
| CA-25 | Steve Knight | Katie Hill | D+1.0 | Toss-up |
| CA-39 | Young Kim | Gil Cisneros | D+0.3 | Toss-up |
| CA-45 | Mimi Walter | Katie Porter | D+2.3 | Lean D |
| CA-48 | Dana Rohrabacher | Harley Rouda | D+2.1 | Lean D |
| CA-50 | Duncan Hunter | Ammar Campa-Najjar | R+5.0 | Likely R |
There are six districts in FiveThirtyEight’s forecast where a Democrat is favored to flip the district from GOP control. Hillary Clinton won all of those districts in 2016. Those races include one in the largely agrarian Central Valley, one in a Republican stronghold north of Los Angeles, and one open seat north of Anaheim.
There’s one more race we have our eye on in California, the 50th District: Republican incumbent Duncan Hunter should have been a shoo-in, but an indictment on charges that he misused campaign finances has opened up the door ever so slightly for his Democratic opponent, Ammar Campa-Najjar. Hunter is still favored in the race, but he’s gone on the offensive, releasing Islamophobic ads related to Campa-Najjar’s Palestinian heritage and family history.