The Senate contests with the highest projected turnout are some that routinely have high turnout in most electoral cycles, such as Minnesota, Montana, and Wyoming. But competitiveness also factors in — close races tend to have higher turnout than they would otherwise, boosting turnout even in traditionally low-turnout states like Texas.
Forecasted turnout for every Senate race
According to FiveThirtyEight’s final forecast
| State▲▼ |
Proj. turnout▲▼ |
Voting-eligible pop.▲▼ |
Proj. turnout share▲▼ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 2,371k | 4,056k | 58.5% |
| North Dakota | 330 | 565 | 58.4 |
| Maine | 627 | 1,075 | 58.3 |
| Minnesota special | 2,352 | 4,056 | 58.0 |
| Wisconsin | 2,515 | 4,344 | 57.9 |
| Montana | 447 | 811 | 55.1 |
| Vermont | 273 | 501 | 54.5 |
| Florida | 7,081 | 13,300 | 53.2 |
| Massachusetts | 2,654 | 5,024 | 52.8 |
| Wyoming | 215 | 411 | 52.3 |
| Michigan | 3,918 | 7,530 | 52.0 |
| Ohio | 4,590 | 8,882 | 51.7 |
| Nebraska | 700 | 1,364 | 51.3 |
| Pennsylvania | 5,001 | 9,867 | 50.7 |
| Missouri | 2,281 | 4,564 | 50.0 |
| Connecticut | 1,303 | 2,623 | 49.7 |
| Virginia | 2,821 | 5,702 | 49.5 |
| Nevada | 949 | 1,921 | 49.4 |
| Rhode Island | 385 | 794 | 48.5 |
| Washington | 2,507 | 5,196 | 48.2 |
| Indiana | 2,219 | 4,921 | 45.1 |
| Maryland | 1,941 | 4,313 | 45.0 |
| Arizona | 2,068 | 4,598 | 45.0 |
| New Jersey | 2,798 | 6,232 | 44.9 |
| Tennessee | 2,055 | 4,623 | 44.5 |
| Delaware | 306 | 699 | 43.8 |
| West Virginia | 631 | 1,444 | 43.7 |
| New Mexico | 625 | 1,475 | 42.4 |
| New York | 5,880 | 13,900 | 42.3 |
| Utah | 821 | 1,988 | 41.3 |
| Mississippi | 829 | 2,030 | 40.8 |
| Texas | 7,132 | 17,600 | 40.5 |
| Mississippi special | 783 | 2,030 | 38.6 |
| Hawaii | 377 | 1,021 | 36.9 |
| California | 8,824 | 25,200 | 35.0 |