I mentioned the possibility of Trump dismissing Jeff Sessions or other members of the Cabinet as a big potential story this week. Here’s the other big story looming: the drama over who will be the leader of the Democrats in the House in 2019 and potentially the next speaker. If the Democrats don’t win control of the House, I think it’s virtually certain they will seek to replace Nancy Pelosi as the top Democrat. But it’s not clear who would replace her, because I think Democrats would be looking to clean house among their leadership team. (In other words, I don’t think No. 2 Democrat Steny Hoyer or No. 3 James Clyburn would replace Pelosi in this scenario.) So there would be a campaign to be the new top Democrat in the House.
It’s likely Democrats will win control of the House, which could set up an even more interesting story: a party about to take over the House but not sure who its speaker choice is.
By my colleague Nathaniel Rakich’s count, at least 62 Democrats on the ballot on Tuesday (some incumbents and some challengers) have said they will not back Pelosi to become speaker. We don’t know how many of those people will be elected on Tuesday. But remember, for Pelosi to become speaker, at some point she must have 218 members of Congress behind her, in a public vote on the floor of the House of Representatives in January.
By tomorrow, we should know if there are 218 Democrats elected to the House who are generally pro-Pelosi. If there are not, I expect to see two things happen. First, the Democrats who campaigned on anti-Pelosi pledges will asked to reaffirm those stances. Then, assuming that Pelosi is still short of 218 supporters, I expect some kind of informal speaker campaign to start. I expect Pelosi will ask members (including some opposed to her) to back her as a kind of “transitional” speaker while she names an heir apparent. (Watch for California’s Adam Schiff if Pelosi goes this route.) So I think she will be a candidate. I think Hoyer will try to run as well. I would expect a candidate from the party’s more liberal wing in the House, a candidate from the party’s younger wing (say, Ohio’s Tim Ryan) and a candidate backed by Congressional Black Caucus (New York’s Hakeem Jeffries is a possibility.) And maybe some kind consensus candidate who doesn’t irritate any one wing of House Democrats too much (watch for, say, Alabama’s Terri Sewell or Kentucky’s John Yarmuth).