The districts with the highest projected turnout are all highly affluent areas, some of which are also in states with traditionally high overall turnout, such as Colorado, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Conversely, districts with the lowest projected turnout tend to be less affluent, and most are heavily Hispanic districts.
Highest and lowest projected turnout rates in House races
According to FiveThirtyEight’s final forecast
| District | Proj. turnout | Voting-eligible pop. | Proj. turnout share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota 3rd | 348k | 509k | 68.4% |
| 2 | Minnesota 2nd | 327 | 502 | 65.1 |
| 3 | Florida 4th | 342 | 536 | 63.8 |
| 4 | Virginia 10th | 323 | 513 | 63.0 |
| 5 | Michigan 11th | 335 | 533 | 62.9 |
| 6 | Wisconsin 5th | 345 | 552 | 62.5 |
| 7 | Minnesota 6th | 314 | 510 | 61.6 |
| 8 | Florida 8th | 325 | 530 | 61.3 |
| 9 | Maine 1st | 331 | 545 | 60.7 |
| 10 | Colorado 2nd | 369 | 612 | 60.3 |
| 11 | Virginia 7th | 316 | 524 | 60.3 |
| 12 | Florida 18th | 310 | 515 | 60.2 |
| 13 | Pennsylvania 1st | 326 | 544 | 59.9 |
| 14 | Florida 16th | 323 | 540 | 59.8 |
| 15 | Missouri 2nd | 344 | 576 | 59.7 |
| ⋮ | ||||
| 421 | New York 5th | 142 | 504 | 28.2 |
| 422 | Georgia 8th | 144 | 512 | 28.1 |
| 423 | California 44th | 108 | 384 | 28.1 |
| 424 | California 34th | 103 | 372 | 27.7 |
| 425 | New York 15th | 112 | 405 | 27.7 |
| 426 | Texas 16th | 121 | 441 | 27.4 |
| 427 | California 40th | 86 | 319 | 27.0 |
| 428 | Texas 34th | 111 | 413 | 26.9 |
| 429 | California 21st | 94 | 349 | 26.9 |
| 430 | Texas 28th | 107 | 408 | 26.2 |
| 431 | Texas 35th | 132 | 505 | 26.1 |
| 432 | Texas 33rd | 83 | 326 | 25.5 |
| 433 | Arizona 7th | 98 | 392 | 25.0 |
| 434 | Texas 29th | 85 | 343 | 24.8 |
| 435 | Texas 20th | 124 | 512 | 24.2 |