What Role Will Kavanaugh Play?
Some more thoughts on the Kavanaugh question from earlier. As Chad said, there’s a good argument to be made that the confirmation hearing of Justice Brett Kavanaugh was the most significant political event this election season. But its effects on the election were murky. Competing theories quickly emerged. One held that it would excite Republican voters and shrink the “enthusiasm gap” with Democrats. Another held that Kavanaugh was never a popular choice, especially with groups such as college-educated women, and therefore the fight would benefit Democrats. Shortly after the hearing, one could point to polling data that supported either theory.
In early October, FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver examined the data. Trump’s net approval rating and Republicans’ chances of retaining control of the House seemed largely unaffected. But their chances in the Senate had improved in all three flavors of our model. That was in large part a result of a worsening forecast for incumbent Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota. She voted against Kavanaugh’s confirmation even though a clear majority of North Dakotans were in favor of it. Our Deluxe model gives Heitkamp a 2-in-9 chance of re-election.
But even weeks later, Nate tweeted that “very little is clear about the Kavanaugh effect.”
Kavanaugh was confirmed on Oct. 6. One Democrat (Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia) voted for him, and one Republican (Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska) voted “present.” Our Deluxe model gives Manchin a 7-in-8 chance of winning re-election, and Murkowski is not on the ballot until 2022. I’ll be on the lookout for any Kavanaugh-related fallout tonight, and perhaps the effects of his confirmation hearing will become a little clearer.