Could Nonreligious Voters Make Their Presence Known?
The Democrats are facing an important test today over whether they can mobilize a rapidly growing sector of their base: religiously unaffiliated voters. A PRRI poll published last month found that secular Democrats are among the most enthusiastic and politically engaged voters this year. So in this election, nonreligious voters have the potential to weaken the longstanding dominance at the polls of religious voters — particularly socially conservative Christians who overwhelmingly vote for Republicans.
The number of Americans who don’t identify with any religion has exploded over the past two decades, and most support Democrats. This marks a pretty big shift in the Democratic base — 33 percent of Democrats are unaffiliated today, up from only 9 percent in 1997. But so far, nonreligious voters have proved challenging to galvanize politically, which has allowed religious voters to exert a significant influence over electoral outcomes even as their numbers shrink. In 2014, nonreligious Americans made up about 22 percent of the total population but only 12 percent of voters. White evangelical Protestants, on the other hand, made up only 18 percent of the total population but 26 percent of the electorate.
The problem for Democrats is that even if religiously unaffiliated voters are unusually enthusiastic about politics this year, it’s hard to turn them into a political powerhouse overnight. Meanwhile, white evangelicals are among the president’s biggest fans, and there’s no sign that their usual political energy will be dampened. But if religiously unaffiliated voters do turn out in higher numbers today, it could signal the beginning of a bigger religious realignment in politics.