What Went Down In The 2018 Midterms

There will be at least 18 people headed to Congress who could count as members of a science caucus — meaning they have backgrounds in STEM fields or have demonstrated support for STEM issues. (Ten of the 18 are incumbents.) And this number could grow — another five races featuring candidates with STEM backgrounds haven’t been called yet.

In general, science candidates performed better than expected. Three of the winners — Elaine Luria in the Virginia 2nd, Joe Cunningham in the South Carolina 1st and Steve Watkins in the Kansas 2nd — weren’t favored by our forecast going in. It’s worth noting, though, that this block is unlikely to all vote the same way: Two are Republicans and one is a pro-life Democrat. As a country, we still haven’t decided what it means to be a science candidate — or whether it means anything at all.

Another pattern I noticed is that partisanship proved more important than scandal. Several incumbents (from both parties) who have faced indictment charges in the last few years won, but they were certainly penalized. In the New York 27th, GOP Rep. Chris Collins won by 2 points in a district Trump won by 25 points in 2016. In the California 50th, GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter won by 8 points in a district Trump carried by 15 poitns. And Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez won re-election by 9 points in New Jersey, which went for Clinton by 14 points.