What Went Down In The 2018 Midterms

Another pattern I noticed is that partisanship proved more important than scandal. Several incumbents (from both parties) who have faced indictment charges in the last few years won, but they were certainly penalized. In the New York 27th, GOP Rep. Chris Collins won by 2 points in a district Trump won by 25 points in 2016. In the California 50th, GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter won by 8 points in a district Trump carried by 15 poitns. And Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez won re-election by 9 points in New Jersey, which went for Clinton by 14 points.

As of Wednesday morning, 108 women have been elected to Congress (96 women in the House and 12 women in the Senate). Combined with the 10 female senators already serving who weren’t up for re-election this year, that makes for a record-breaking 118 women who will serve in the new Congress. There is still one more Senate seat to be decided in Arizona, but all the candidates are women, so a woman will win that seat as well. Prior to Tuesday’s election, there were 107 women in Congress. That marks an 11 percent increase from the previous Congress. Gains were made by Democratic women (83 of the 95 women elected to the House are Democrats and 10 of 13 women elected to the Senate are Democrats).

I’ve been looking at patterns in House races all morning. One thing that jumped out to me: Making a viral video and becoming an overnight Democratic sensation didn’t translate into actual wins. MJ Hegar in the Texas 31st, Amy McGrath in the Kentucky 6th and Randy Bryce in the Wisconsin 1st all lost in what are pretty red districts. However, the money they raised almost certainly helped them run a more competitive race than they otherwise would have. Hegar lost by just 3 points in a district Trump won by 13 points in 2016; McGrath lost by 3 in a district won by 15 poitnts. And Bryce underperformed, losing by 13 points in a district Trump won by 10 points.