What Went Down In The 2018 Midterms

I’ve been looking at patterns in House races all morning. One thing that jumped out to me: Making a viral video and becoming an overnight Democratic sensation didn’t translate into actual wins. MJ Hegar in the Texas 31st, Amy McGrath in the Kentucky 6th and Randy Bryce in the Wisconsin 1st all lost in what are pretty red districts. However, the money they raised almost certainly helped them run a more competitive race than they otherwise would have. Hegar lost by just 3 points in a district Trump won by 13 points in 2016; McGrath lost by 3 in a district won by 15 poitnts. And Bryce underperformed, losing by 13 points in a district Trump won by 10 points.

On Trump’s claiming credit for GOP Senate gains: Midterm elections were already pretty nationalized, but I think Trump was quite effective in nationalizing the Senate races, so that’s not out of touch with reality. The rest of this seems like standard Trump. Definitely on the defensive — maybe a bit more so than usual.

I guess I’d say that he deserves partial credit for the Senate and partial blame for the House?