What Went Down In The 2018 Midterms

According to an email update from Ballotpedia, if Brian Kemp does indeed win the Georgia gubernatorial race, there will be 37 state-government trifectas (or single party control of the governorship, state Senate and state House). Republicans will control 23 state governments, while Democrats will control 14. And an amazing stat from the National Conference of State Legislatures: Only one state legislature is split in control between Democrats and Republicans (i.e., one party holds the Senate, the other party holds the House) — Minnesota. It’s the first time that’s happened since 1914.

The popularity of Medicaid expansion was on full display last night. Voters in three states chose to expand the program to those with incomes 133 percent below the federal poverty line. Idaho’s measure passed by a wide margin, with 61 percent in favor, while 53 percent voted in favor in Nebraska. In Utah, the measure is projected to pass, and currently has 54.1 percent of the vote with 75 percent of precincts reporting.

But as I mentioned last night, there are other states where governors race results might renew a push for Medicaid legislation as well. The Kansas legislature voted to expand Medicaid in 2017, but the bill was vetoed by former Republican Gov. Sam Brownback. However, Democrat Laura Kelly’s win in the governor race last night could mean another attempt in the state. And in Maine, where voters chose to expand Medicaid on a 2017 ballot measure but Republican Gov. Paul LePage refused to implement it, newly elected governor Democrat Janet Mills could see that expansion through.

But in Montana, where voters decided whether or not to make its 2015 expansion permanent and paid for by a tax on tobacco, $17 million in opposition spending by big tobacco appears to have paid off: 54 percent of Montanans voted against the measure.

Democrat Tony Evers will be the next governor of Wisconsin. In some sense, Scott Walker’s loss marks the end of a golden age for Republican politics in the Badger State. Of course, the state is still sending a number of Republicans to Washington, including Republican Sen. Ron Johnson, but hear me out.

Walker was first elected in 2010, then survived a historic recall election in 2012 and was re-elected again in 2014. He charted a staunchly conservative path for Wisconsin and championed polarizing legislation like Act 10, which limited the power of public unions, and “right-to-work” laws, which limited the power of collective bargaining generally. Walker was a (very) early darling for conservatives in the 2016 Republican presidential primary.

During Walker’s time in office, other Wisconsin Republicans also rose to national prominence. Paul Ryan became the 2012 vice presidential nominee and went on to become speaker of the House. Reince Priebus chaired the Republican National Committee from 2011 to 2017 and left to serve as President Trump’s chief of staff. Trump himself (not a Wisconsinite) won the state in the 2016 presidential race, becoming the first Republican to do so since 1984.

When Walker leaves office in January, he will close the book on eight years of Wisconsin Republican dominance. Priebus is out of his job at the White House and Ryan is moving home to Janesville. A Democrat in the governor’s mansion in 2021 will prevent any overwhelming Republican gerrymandering of the state’s electoral maps heading into the next decade. It’s been quite the Republican stretch for a state famous for its progressive politics.