What Went Down In The 2018 Midterms

Democrat Tony Evers will be the next governor of Wisconsin. In some sense, Scott Walker’s loss marks the end of a golden age for Republican politics in the Badger State. Of course, the state is still sending a number of Republicans to Washington, including Republican Sen. Ron Johnson, but hear me out.

Walker was first elected in 2010, then survived a historic recall election in 2012 and was re-elected again in 2014. He charted a staunchly conservative path for Wisconsin and championed polarizing legislation like Act 10, which limited the power of public unions, and “right-to-work” laws, which limited the power of collective bargaining generally. Walker was a (very) early darling for conservatives in the 2016 Republican presidential primary.

During Walker’s time in office, other Wisconsin Republicans also rose to national prominence. Paul Ryan became the 2012 vice presidential nominee and went on to become speaker of the House. Reince Priebus chaired the Republican National Committee from 2011 to 2017 and left to serve as President Trump’s chief of staff. Trump himself (not a Wisconsinite) won the state in the 2016 presidential race, becoming the first Republican to do so since 1984.

When Walker leaves office in January, he will close the book on eight years of Wisconsin Republican dominance. Priebus is out of his job at the White House and Ryan is moving home to Janesville. A Democrat in the governor’s mansion in 2021 will prevent any overwhelming Republican gerrymandering of the state’s electoral maps heading into the next decade. It’s been quite the Republican stretch for a state famous for its progressive politics.

Remember that confusion over whether Nelson conceded in the Florida Senate race? Apparently he has not. This morning, he announced that he’s going the recount route. Scott leads by nearly 35,000 votes, and the deadline for the recount is Nov. 10, high noon.

The top-line narratives haven’t changed much since last night: Democrats have a House majority and Republicans will keep the Senate (with a net gain of two seats under their belt at the moment and the possibility for more).

First, updates on the races that are still too close to call:

• As Geoffrey Skelley wrote this morning, no winner has been projected in the Senate races in Arizona, Florida and Montana, but the Republican candidate is holding a razor-thin lead in all three races. (There have been mixed media reports regarding whether Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson has conceded in Florida, but ABC News has not yet projected a winner and the race may still go to a recount.)
• One bright spot for Democrats in the Senate? In Nevada, Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen defeated GOP incumbent Dean Heller by 4 points.
• As for the House, Democrats have won 223 seats and Republicans have won 201 so far, according to ABC News. Several of the races where no winner has yet been projected are in Washington and California, and it might be a while before we have final tallies there, as so many votes are cast by mail. The Maine 2nd may be decided by special rules due to its ranked-voting system. Nathaniel Rakich has more on major upsets of the evening, plus what happened in Romney-Clinton districts (good news for Democrats) and in Obama-Trump districts (more of a mixed bag).
• In governors races, Democrats picked up seven seats from Republicans last night in Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico and Wisconsin. The Connecticut governor race is still too close to call, but it looks as if Democrats will maintain control as Democrat Ned Lamont leads the race by roughly 1 percentage point and Republican Bob Stefanowski conceded this morning. Alaska and Georgia’s gubernatorial races also remain too close to call. But it looks as if the majority of Americans will now have a Democratic governor, despite a stinging loss for Democrats in Florida and what looks to be a loss in Georgia as well. Perry Bacon has more on what this means.