What Went Down In The 2018 Midterms

The top-line narratives haven’t changed much since last night: Democrats have a House majority and Republicans will keep the Senate (with a net gain of two seats under their belt at the moment and the possibility for more).

First, updates on the races that are still too close to call:

• As Geoffrey Skelley wrote this morning, no winner has been projected in the Senate races in Arizona, Florida and Montana, but the Republican candidate is holding a razor-thin lead in all three races. (There have been mixed media reports regarding whether Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson has conceded in Florida, but ABC News has not yet projected a winner and the race may still go to a recount.)
• One bright spot for Democrats in the Senate? In Nevada, Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen defeated GOP incumbent Dean Heller by 4 points.
• As for the House, Democrats have won 223 seats and Republicans have won 201 so far, according to ABC News. Several of the races where no winner has yet been projected are in Washington and California, and it might be a while before we have final tallies there, as so many votes are cast by mail. The Maine 2nd may be decided by special rules due to its ranked-voting system. Nathaniel Rakich has more on major upsets of the evening, plus what happened in Romney-Clinton districts (good news for Democrats) and in Obama-Trump districts (more of a mixed bag).
• In governors races, Democrats picked up seven seats from Republicans last night in Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico and Wisconsin. The Connecticut governor race is still too close to call, but it looks as if Democrats will maintain control as Democrat Ned Lamont leads the race by roughly 1 percentage point and Republican Bob Stefanowski conceded this morning. Alaska and Georgia’s gubernatorial races also remain too close to call. But it looks as if the majority of Americans will now have a Democratic governor, despite a stinging loss for Democrats in Florida and what looks to be a loss in Georgia as well. Perry Bacon has more on what this means.

The big questions have been answered. Democrats have taken the House. Republicans will keep the Senate. Exactly how many seats will change hands, however, is still up in the air:

• There are currently just over 30 House seats yet to be projected; if the current leader in all of them ends up winning, the House will be 227 Democrats, 208 Republicans.
• In the Senate, three races remain outstanding (not including Florida, where Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson has conceded). In Montana, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is fighting for his political life, trailing Republican Matt Rosendale by about 1 point. In Arizona, Republican Rep. Martha McSally has a 1-point lead — 49 percent to 48 percent — over Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema. Hundreds of thousands of votes remain to be counted, so it could go either way. In Nevada, Republican Sen. Dean Heller trails Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen by 7 points. (And, in fact, the race has been called for her by some networks,)
• The unresolved gubernatorial races are in Wisconsin, where it seems like Democrat Tony Evers will just eke out a win; Georgia, where Republican Brian Kemp is up by a few points but only just above the threshold to avoid a runoff; Connecticut, where Democrat Ned Lamont is trailing; and Alaska and Nevada, where only about a fifth of the vote has been counted so far.

So we’re going to get a few hours of sleep, and — being completists — we’ll close this out sometime Wednesday with the final numbers. 😴

ABC News projects a Republican win in CA-21 and a Democratic win in SC-1 (😲).