What Went Down In The 2018 Midterms

Here’s a nugget from preliminary exit-poll data in the Montana Senate race: Tester is winning voters who are younger than 30 by a 43-point margin over Republican Matt Rosendale. He won that demographic by just an 8-point margin in 2012, according to ABC News.

A little more data has come in from Montana, and now Republican Matt Rosendale has taken the lead over Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, 49 percent to 48 percent. It’s still difficult to say how this will shake out. Many of the blue counties in the state have a lot of outstanding vote, including Missoula. But there are some small GOP-leaning counties that have not reported anything yet. Note that Tester has never won an outright majority in his two Senate win (49.2 percent in 2006 and 48.6 percent in 2012), so if he does eke out a win, this would be par for the course.

California’s Senate results are eyebrow-raising. Sen. Dianne Feinstein leads fellow Democrat Kevin de Leon just 54 percent to 46 percent — a lot closer than most people thought it would be. Is it huge turnout among progressives? (De Leon was challenging Feinstein from the left.) Is it that Republicans just instinctively voted against their old nemesis Feinstein? My guess, looking at the county-by-county results, is the latter.