What Went Down In The 2018 Midterms

ABC News projects a Democratic win in CA-7.

Republicans carried the national House popular vote by 1 percentage point in 2016, and based on The Upshot model, they look likely to lose by about 7 percentage points in 2018. That 8-point shift would be nearly as large as the 9-point shift toward Republicans that happened in 2010 and the largest shift toward the Democrats since 1948.

I’d be careful on Montana there. Our model is just looking at the overall vote count and not where the outstanding votes are from. The Upshot’s model thinks there’s a lot left from Missoula that will likely put Tester ahead.