FiveThirtyEight
Matt Grossmann

So far, establishment primary candidates who fended off liberal insurgents in House races are looking good (Pennsylvania 7th, Kansas 3rd and Texas 7th), while winning liberal insurgents are fairing poorly (Nebraska 2nd and Pennsylvania 1st). But especially combined with Gillum’s loss, it may come to be seen as a better evening for sticking with Democratic establishment picks.

Nate Silver

I’ve been told not to expect a call in Florida’s Senate race tonight, where we could easily be in recount territory again.

Ella Koeze

As Nate said, Kendra Horn in the Oklahoma 5th is the biggest upset of the night according to our forecast so far.

The biggest upsets so far

As of 11:24 p.m.

race state/district winner party pre-election FiveThirtyEight win probability current lead
House OK-5 Kendra Horn D 6.6% D+1.4
House NY-11 Max Rose D 20.3 D+5.5
Governor Florida Ron DeSantis R 22.2 R+0.9

* Asterisk denotes special election.

Source: ABC News


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